Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight five key themes. Here’s what it found: 

• Most buyers expect prices to rise slightly in the short term or remain flat. But many qualify this view as transitory or dependent on demand improvements. 

• Respondents state that demand is broadly stable-to-weak, and inventories are moving slower vs. last year. 

• Import prices are more attractive for lighter steel gauges. But long lead times, limited offers, and spot scarcity curb their utility for most buyers. 

• Respondents say tariffs are causing real uncertainty for their businesses and buying decisions. 

• Respondents say mergers and local product shortages are tightening supply and reshaping the market. 

Do you want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires. 

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months? 

“Prices will increase then flatten out.” 

“Slightly up. Seasonal reflex.” 

“Stable because metal building business has not picked up enough to support more increases.” 

“Higher prices.” 

“Up slightly for a couple months, then dropping off slightly.” 

“Flat, potentially some slight contraction.” 

“They have to come back down soon. We don’t view this supply-driven rally as sustainable. Not unless actual, true demand improves.” 

“We’re convinced that prices will go up a little for at least the short-term future and possibly stay elevated through the first quarter.” 

“Unless demand seriously returns, I think we will see nothing but flat to down.” 

“They now have momentum. I think it will roll for three months.” 

“Continue to climb until at least through the end of Q1. After that, it is anyone’s guess.” 

Is demand improving, declining, or stable? 

While 61% of survey participants who answered this question thought that the market was stable. Multiple buyers also added caveats to their answers.  

“Stable to declining due to market uncertainty.” 

“Demand seems stable, but at low levels. That is why these increases seem so wild.” 

“Seasonal slowdown, but still stable with optimistic Q1.” 

“Stable due to tariffs and larger infrastructure projects moving forward.” 

“Plate demand is stable to slightly improving.” 

“Demand is flat to down.” 

“Demand will see a historic bump up for Q1, then drop back for another dismal year.” 

“It has been declining since mid- to late November, but I think the decline is at least partially due to the holidays.” 

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year? 

“Slower, less demand.” 

“Slower to the same.” 

“Plate inventory moving slower this year over last year.” 

“Normal.” 

“About the same.” 

“Inventory is moving at about the same clip, which isn’t great.” 

“It’s moving pretty well, some service centers are running low on inventory, and we seem to be increasing market share.” 

“Faster due to tariffs reducing the offshore amount being stocked.” 

“Faster.” 

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business? Why or why not? 

Most buyers responding to this question (55%) feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Only 9% believe that the tariffs are helping. The remaining 36% are not sure whether tariffs are helpful. Comments included: 

“Driving costs up.” 

“It’s looking to me like the tariffs are causing inflation and uncertainty and thus slowing the economy.” 

“Stagflation.” 

“They continue to just be ‘noise’ giving people a reason to not spend money.” 

“Impact on downstream business and general economy is trickling up.” 

“The tariffs have helped by establishing a price floor in an otherwise difficult year with weak end-user demand.” 

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs? 

The largest share of respondents (55%) say they are not seeing any signs of reshoring. While 27% said it was too early to tell, and 18% said they have seen some evidence. Comments included: 

“Yes, but not enough.” 

“We hear only talk.” 

“Demand never picked up despite short supply.” 

“Only hearing about reshoring. I’m seeing little or no evidence of reshoring in my customer base.” 

“The commitments are public, but they take time to materialize. Patience is a lost virtue.” 

“We’ve seen some movement back, but this will take time before the impacts are known.” 

“I hear talk, but I don’t see evidence.” 

Are imports more attractive vs. domestic material? Why or why not? 

“Not sure.” 

“Imports are priced more attractively than domestic material.” 

“Yes.” 

“Not attractive due to tariff and lead time.” 

“Still attractive.” 

“Plate imports are not attractive.” 

“No, due to tariff impacts.” 

“Not more attractive due to tariffs, but they do put a lid on domestic price increases.” 

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about? 

“Systematic overcount of jobs and concentration of all economic growth in one vertical that is likely a bubble means we might be reliving 2008 going into 2009.” 

“We’re all talking about the big boy SSC M&A moves (Olympic/Ryerson, Kloeckner/Worthington), but I think we see that continue with major regional players too.” 

“It seems to me that with Algoma is no longer a player in the Midwest. I think there may be a shortage of floor plate.” 

“How Europe’s CBAM introduction will once again change global trade flows and increase unpredictability.”