SMU Community Chat: Tanners talks 2026, TACO, tariffs, and 2025's market trends  

And she predicts that in 2026 domestic mills will “have the upper hand.” 

Market insights for 2026 

Tanners maintains that the Trump administration’s trade policies show nuance and durability, unlike policies in prior cycles. As such, rollbacks are unlikely. 

She explained how the tariff policy is supporting domestic producers. She noted the latest US International Trade Administrations’ Steel Import Monitor and Analysis (SIMA) data (including final data for Sept., and license data for Oct.-Dec.) shows steel imports to the US are hovering around 2020’s figures.  

That’s just one input, but a data point that illustrates “mills who committed billions to add capacity to the US are seeing their investments protected by the US government and replacing imports.” 

“Any carveout likely requires comparable tariff policy, and even then, could see Section 232 drop to 25% from 50%, could include a quota, not likely zero,” she said. “It’s not just 25 to zero, there’s talk about quotas and downstream tariffs, which I think are underappreciated.” 

“Comparable tariff policy” refers to the idea that US trade partners seeking a carveout from the S232 50% tariff (for example, Mexico and Canada) would enforce their own stringent steel tariffs on countries known to dilute the market by overproducing cheap products that they sell under market value.  

“This White House has had a commitment to tariffs and a sophistication around imports that I’ve not seen in my career,” Tanners said.  

Overall, mills will maintain a strong position in 2026, she contended, while also addressing the giant “elephant in the room”: demand.  

Jokingly, she rebuffed criticism of the phrase “a ‘demandless’ recovery.” She clarified that some sectors consistently present strong demand but also noted there are weak pockets, too. 

Where growth persists, like data center development, it appears insufficient for offsetting broader construction and manufacturing softness in 2026. Instead, limiting imports and constraining supply add pricing strength.

“We think this is a market where it is not so much about demand. It is more about supply. If there is less supply vs. more demand, you still have the same outcome,” she said.  

How high will prices soar? The prediction is “one grand per ton of hot band.” That means a soft ceiling for one short ton of hot-rolled coil will land at $1,000.  

“We are not big believers that we get much higher than a grand a hot band. I think the Trump administration is resistant to a price much above $1,000/st, it’s a psychological number,” she stated.  

The takeaway from Tanners as the market enters 2026 was that it’s a fluid, policy-driven market at this point. The market resembles less of a purely cyclical one and more of a governed market. Therefore, 2026 will be a dynamic year. Policy changes and market fluctuations will continue.  

2025’s rugged terrain 

The grand-a-ton-of-hot-band vision may not seem far-fetched in the last weeks of December. However, recall the ever-shifting market conditions of 2025.  

Earlier this year, Tanners forecasted prices of HRC would reach the $900s per st. Her forecast turned out to be prophetic. In SMU’s Dec. 16, 2025, weekly price assessment, the average price for HRC was $910/st.  

Tanners also watched her analysis of ‘steelmageddon’ materialize in 2025. The theory that steel capacity additions would eventually overwhelm demand also proved to be accurate.  

“There’s too much steel being added and too much steel capacity. We’re not done seeing it all. We’ve seen capacity additions as much as 8 million [short] tons annualized year over year,” she said. 

And she predicts mills will add another 4-5 million [short] tons in 2026.  

Her “galv galore” theory, stating that new galvanized capacity would pressure premiums materially, continues to play out.  

“Galvanized premiums have fallen sharply with all the new capacity coming out,” Tanners said. And she added, “There’s still more to come and I don’t think they’re going to what they were.” 

Where Tanners hasn’t seen her analyses play out: shortages of scrap.  

Increased use of electric-arc furnaces (EAFs) for steelmaking could have tightened the scrap market but has not so far.  

“This is the one where we’ve been dead wrong. Scrap has been remarkably dull over the last 18 months,” she said.  

Overall, Tanners’ 2025 assessments proved to be directionally correct. Her calls on prices, imports, galvanized pressure, and the ‘demandless’ recovery continue to play out. Her insights underscored the thesis that discipline and not user demand were doing the work this year.