Apparent steel supply slips in October

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market declined from September to October, driven primarily by slowing domestic mill shipments, according to SMU’s analysis of US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

This “apparent steel supply” metric is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments with finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports.

October supply declined by 3%, or 252,000 short tons (st), from September to 8.38 million st, but was 8% higher than the same month one year earlier. A reduction in domestic shipments was the primary contributor to the change in supply, slightly dampened by a rise in finished imports. October supply is 165,000 st below the average rate seen across the prior 12 months.

Supply has fluctuated within a relatively stable range for over three years, averaging 8.45 million st per month in that time (Figure 1). Over the past year it fallen as low as 7.65 million st in November 2024 (a near four-year low) and as high as 8.98 million st in January (a two-and-a-half year high). For comparison, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014 and the lowest was 6.52 million st in 2020.

Trends

Supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth out monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends (Figure 2). On this basis, supply dipped to a four-year low of 7.99 million st in November 2024, then recovered through July to reach a near three-year high of 8.82 million st. The 3MMA has marginally declined in each of the last three months but remains healthy, easing to 8.52 million st through October.

Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from September to October:

Domestic shipments declined 4% (340,000 st) from October’s four-year high of 8.03 million st to a five-month low of 7.69 million st, accounting for 92% of total supply (November figures were released earlier this month, showing another 8% reduction).
Finished steel imports rebounded 13% (156,000 st) to 1.35 million st, previously at a five-year low. The latest license data shows a potential 16% decline in November, followed by a 5% rise in December.
Steel exports increased 11% (68,000 st) to 662,000 st, shifting from one of the lowest rates seen in over five years to a seven-month high.
Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 8% of October’s supply. This is just 1% above September’s multi-year low rate and 5% below the average rate of the last three years.

To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.