December service center shipments and inventories report

Flat rolled

US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply recovered in December, after trending lower from September to November. Shipping days of supply reached 61.1 on an adjusted basis at the end of December, according to SMU data.

Flat roll supply recovered to its second-highest total for 2025 after reaching a two-year low in November. That trails only the 66.0 days posted in January 2025 for the year, and was below 77.1 shipping days in December 2024.

Flat roll inventories represented 3.06 months of supply in December, up from 2.81 months in November but below 3.86 months in December 2024. The month-on-month (m/m) increase in inventories is a typical seasonal trend, though it is currently slightly subdued. The dynamic is likely the driver behind the recent slowdown in shipments to close out the year.

Shipments in December were down just 0.6% m/m but followed a 21% decline from October to November. The slower pace came despite a slight increase in shipping days and an upward turn in prices. The move maintained a balance between service center supply and demand.

The data aligns well with SMU’s mid-December survey, which found that nearly 50% of service centers were releasing less steel compared to one year earlier, while 36% were releasing the same amount of steel. Just 14% reported they were releasing more vs. the same time a year earlier. While demand has seen marginal improvement, pricing gains kept spot buying limited during a seasonally slower period. Thus, it’s no surprise to see a decline of 3.1% m/m in on-order volumes.

At the end of December, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were up 12.8% m/m, and the highest mark all year. It was just marginally below the most recent high in December 2024.

The latest SMU survey from Jan. 9 showed hot-rolled coil lead times at 6.11 weeks, up from 5.58 weeks a month earlier. It’s also the highest reading since January 2024.

The result corresponds well with SMU’s January survey, which saw, on average, 23% of service centers building inventory. Seventy-three percent maintained material, with the remaining 4% reducing inventory.

Plate

US service center plate inventories also improved in December, supported by a cut of 5.8% in the daily shipping rate, according to SMU data. At the end of December, service centers held 57.7 shipping days of supply, up from 52.8 in November. Plate supply in December represented 2.89 months of supply, down from 2.93 months in November.

December plate supply is just marginally lower than year-ago levels, when service centers carried 58.1 days of supply or 2.91 months of supply. Latest inventory levels are largely steady and on par with noted demand dynamics, given the expectation of stable shipments through the end of the year.

Material on order rose in December, up 6.7% m/m, after jumping nearly 18% from October to November. The trend was further boosted by an increase in shipping days of supply on order. At the end of December, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were up more than 13% from November and also up 15% from December 2024. Service centers do not need to carry as much inventory because of additional domestic capacity. Plate mill lead times remain normal at 6.40 weeks, up from 5.33 weeks vs. a month prior, according to the latest SMU survey.

Service center demand has not picked up materially after the summer, though sources continue to report an uptick in special projects. The February order book is also strong, many sources have noted, and they have remained bullish about their outlook for 2026.

Mills have been pushing through price increases as the market starts to look deeper into Q1, though increases have not been as quick to stick.