Plate market optimism veers back toward anxious outlook

During late December and early January, the surge of spot price increases by domestic plate producers signaled to market participants that the supply and demand balance was changing. Participants responded with bullish enthusiasm; some even made opportunistic restocking purchases. 

Sources said their bullish optimism has waned. They see no evidence plate demand will rebalance the flow of supply and demand in the market.  

Voices from the market 

An associate at a large service center in the Midwest said he experienced a sudden slump this week. 

“Suddenly, business has slowed and transactional prices have gone south. I’m consistently losing orders on the basis of pricing. Hopefully, this is just a lull, but I have nothing positive to report this week,” said the associate.  

Located within the same region, a different service center sales professional reported spot market business wasn’t optimal and said his contract and project business remained consistent. He said the prices mills are holding are difficult to accept because service centers are able to give customers lower prices.  

“Day-to-day demand is still subpar, but projects and contracts are OK for the time being,” he said. “After the increases we are seeing mills try to market at $1,070 – $1,120 [per short ton] base plus delivery, but service center prices are lower to end users, so something has to give at some point.”  

He continued, “I’m not sure who is purchasing stock at the recent elevated prices, but we are not unless it is sold. I believe the plate mills cut year-end deals, that they took on more than they could rationally produce, and are now late on a lot of those orders. Service centers are extremely skittish because demand is so day to day.” 

The sales professional also explained that mills running at lower capacities are less efficient than when they can run at higher levels, which could account for delays.  

The same source said, “Typically, mills do not run as efficient when less full, they try to aggregate orders to maximize slab/heat efficiency, which means they have to wait to fill a slab/heat. In turn, delaying deliveries.” 

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI)’s latest production report, domestic mill capacity was 75.9% last week. The capacity increased from the prior week when the mills reported 75.7%, but is down from the same week in 2025 when capacity was 76.3%.  

Finally, the second Midwest service center source said the lower capacity at mills could be, “To help run service center inventories down in hopes they need to put on orders at the mill at higher prices.” 

A source in the Northeast has not seen the market absorb any price increases from domestic mills and finds that orders are consistent, but at lower volumes.  

“The consensus is that we’ll feel the increase in activity throughout 2026. I foresee the price increases being absorbed through the market, but I don’t know if my prices went up until the invoice arrives,” he said.  

On the West Coast, the operator of a mid-sized service center with multiple flat steel products is seeing consistent sales this week. He feels the mill increases will continue if the price of scrap increases and if import lead times remain too far out, making them less attractive. The West Coast source has consistently noted that without end-market demand showing strong signals, the market is fundamentally shaky. 

“Our business seems to be doing good so far this year, but we’ll always take more,” he said. “I think you’re going to see more mill increases, because import offers aren’t as prevalent as they use to be. I also think you’ll see scrap increases (which always emboldens the mills).”

He added, “I’m just not sure how long the mills can keep prices elevated in the first quarter with demand not as strong.” 

Prices and context 

The price of scrap climbed by $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in January. SMU also learned that the severe weather in the US may also drive prices even higher next month.

Imports remain limited, and market uncertainty around tariffs didn’t slow down as a new fight over Greenland triggered an old pattern of freezing in the face of tariff changes.  

During an SMU Community Chat with Jerry Richardson, general director of Brazil’s CSN LLC, Richardson highlighted significant declines across sheet product imports.  

Total monthly imports fell from ~2.1 million tons to roughly 1.4 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Vietnam, Brazil, and Canada are seeing the steepest declines. 

“Everybody’s down,” Richardson said.  

SMU’s weekly price assessment as of Tuesday found the range of transaction prices in the domestic plate spot market ranged from $1,000-1,100 per short ton (st.). The average price is $1,050/st. This week’s price is 24.3% higher than the price in the equivalent week of 2025.  

Using SMU’s Interactive Pricing Tool, you will find that the average transaction price of plate on the spot market was $845/st in the same week of the previous year.  

All prices are ex-works domestic mill base spot prices unless otherwise noted.