Market Data
January 23, 2026
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices indicate optimism
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both increased this week to multi-month highs. The Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up to the highest measure seen since last March, and the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index has risen to one of the highest rates seen in almost a year.
Both Sentiment Indices continue to reflect that steel buyers are optimistic about their businesses’ ability to be successful, with greater confidence today than we have seen in the prior 10 months.
Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking how they rate their companies’ chances of success in today’s market, as well as three to six months down the road. Their responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics tracked since SMU’s 2008 inception.
Current Sentiment
The Current Sentiment Index increased for the second-consecutive survey to +58, the highest level recorded since March 2025 (Figure 1). This marks a six-point increase from our previous survey and a 20-point gain from one month ago. This time last year Sentiment was substantially lower at +35. Throughout 2025 it averaged +41.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment rose three points to +64, tied with the mid-December and mid-March readings of 2025 for a 10-month high (Figure 2). Future Sentiment was slightly stronger one year ago at +66. Across 2025 it averaged +55.
What respondents are saying:
“We are hopeful to see some recovery across the whole economy.”
“We’ll do well even though we’ve got a few holes in our inventory.”
“Margins will shrink as our inventory costs go up, but we always do relatively well.”
“Unsure what will happen by Q2-Q3 once mills start to want to fill time on their lines and start negotiating. I don’t trust them to show enough restraint to keep prices high.”
“Improving in the future due to interest rates dropping and more jobs starting.”
“Very hard to tell with how trade deals with the EU/China and geopolitical shifts might drastically change the landscape, again.”
“Demand will remain flat to weak for the first half of the year.”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings and better highlight trends.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA recovered for the sixth-consecutive survey to +45.42 this week, the highest it has been since May 2025 (Figure 3, left). Compare this to the five-year low of +32.09 recorded three months prior.
The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the seventh-straight survey to +58.96, a nine-month high (Figure 3, right). For reference, this index touched a near-five-year low of +50.11 last June.
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
