Tepid sheet market conditions preceded wintry weather mix: Sources 

Voices from the market 

In the Midwest region, an independently owned and operated steel service center said the only way the US will see HR prices climb is if the US economy suddenly begins to soar.

He contended the regional snow is not going to cause any long-term issues resulting in steel price increases.

“I can see HR getting up to $1000 [per short ton], but to climb much higher the economy would have to soar to levels we have not seen in many years,” he said.

“Importers will be dancing in the streets. I don’t see weather constraints causing long-term problems.”   

He added, “This week we remained consistent with just ‘OK’ volumes. Buyers and sellers think the next two to four years will be good.” 

Prior to the current round of winter storms, a different Midwest-based service center associate said market conditions were steady and positive, overall. However, he admits that market demand has dwindled since the new year started.  

“January has been brisk with sales, and we have already met our 20% increase goal over last year. Time will tell if that forward progress will continue,” he said.  

He felt the weather conditions more acutely than the other Midwest source. He doesn’t think sheet price hikes correlate to winter storms.

“The storm shut us down Monday since only about a handful of people were able to make it to work,” he stated. “Most of my office staff worked remotely, and we had grounded our trucks knowing what the storm would do to the roads.”  

He added, “Considering $950 to $975 seems to be the number, I can’t imagine just because of one snowstorm that prices would jump. Come on, who’s puffing the magic dragon now?  By Tuesday, we were dug out and back to full operation.” 

The same source said he was surprised to see HR prices were up on the week, and that cold rolled and coated product prices aren’t as dynamic.

He mused, “In the last couple of years, prices started to escalate around October 2024 and then started to retreat in March of 2025.  Will this be yet another repeat?” 

A West Coast service center source has been vocal about this same concern. Will the year start strong, only later to find that without solid demand from multiple end-market consumers, the market slows to a crawl sometime around the second quarter? 

“I question how much demand there is for steel! The steel industry is always optimistic going into a new year until reality hits us in the face,” he said. “I never thought I’d see HR priced at $2,000/st, either, but I did and we paid that price for a few months too.” 

He expects that some delays will impact his business because he receives sheet from the Midwest.  

“Yes, with the cold weather back East everything is really slowing down now. I would expect for scrap to go up in February, especially with the cold weather,” he said. “So, I expect prices to keep climbing even if it’s only $10/st to $20/st on a weekly basis.” 

For the West Coast, the same associate foresees consistently high prices and demand dominated by data center consumption alone. This causes him anxiety because he feels a wider array of industries demanding steel offers the industry greater stability.  

“I don’t think you’ll see the mills back off until March or April, maybe,” he said. “Yes, there will be companies that pay less than published pricing, but that’s not on truckload quantities, that’s on larger orders.” 

He doesn’t think anyone on the West Coast is seeing end-use demand bumping up.

“Other than data centers, the areas of consumption aren’t going up. Yes, imports are down and I don’t expect them to pick up anytime soon, either,” he said. “I think the first quarter is going to be a good, tough quarter for the steel industry.” 

Prices 

SMU’s weekly price assessment found that hot-rolled coil spot prices increased to $960/st this week as of Tuesday, Jan. 27. That’s up $15 from the previous week.

In the report, multiple sources debated whether rising prices were attributable to increased demand or limited supply. The role that weather-induced supply constraints played in price increases added a new factor for market participants to consider.  

The spot price of cold-rolled coils remained at the same figure as last week’s average of $1,105/st. Meanwhile, coated prices both increased by $5/st week over week (w/w) and are at the highest levels seen since last April. Galvanized increased to $1,070/st and Galvalume to $1,100/st. 

In the equivalent week of 2025, the average HR spot price was $700/st. This week’s price reflects a 37% increase on the 2025 price. The average spot price of CR for the prior year’s equivalent week was $895/st. This year’s price represents a 23% increase.

And galvanized and galvalume prices each jumped 26% this week from average spot prices of $850/st and $870/st, respectively, in the equivalent week of 2025.  

To assess and compare historical pricing data, check out SMU’s Interactive Pricing Tool.