Final Thoughts

It’s been more than three months since the court heard arguments on the sweeping levies, also known as “reciprocal tariffs,” and whether the president’s use of IEEPA is constitutional.

“The conventional wisdom is that the longer it takes, the more it might indicate that the court is leaning against the government,” said Edward Steiner, managing director, international trade and government relations for Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.

The IEEPA tariffs are separate from Section 232 tariffs, which add fees to imported steel and aluminum specifically.

Even so, the decision on IEEPA will impact the market in one way or another.

Steiner noted if the justices rule Trump’s use of tariffs was unconstitutional, that could put more pressure on Section 232 and 301, which already fall under executive authority.

“If the president loses that tool, he’s going to rely much more on 232 and 301,” Steiner said. Or other statutes could be put into play.

And there could be other indirect impacts on metal markets, said Edward Meir, a commodities analyst and contributor to SMU sister publication Aluminum Market Update.

“In the case of aluminum, premiums might weaken a bit. Maybe on steel, the HRC price might come off a little bit,” Meir said. “It’s more of a psychological, sympathy move.”

He also noted items, say a baby carriage, that would no longer be tariffed under IEEPA, could face derivative levies because it has parts made of steel and aluminum.

“It’s very messy,” Meir said.

If the court decides Trump’s actions were constitutional, then we’re navigating the same choppy waters we have been for the last year.

If the court does not, then, we will face yet more changes.

“I don’t think we’re going to get to a point where things are set in stone,” Steiner cautioned. “This current environment means that we have to be ready for new challenges all the time.”

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