Market Data
February 20, 2026
SMU Survey: Buyers' sentiment remains upbeat
Written by Brett Linton
Steel buyers continue to hold an optimistic market outlook, according to the latest SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices derived from our biweekly market surveys.
The Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index was unchanged this week, having previously touched a 10-month high in mid-January. Our Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index slipped five points, now ten points shy of a one-year high. Both Indices continue to reflect optimism among steel buyers about their businesses’ chances of success.
Since the start of 2026, we have seen higher buyer confidence compared to most of last year. While up, Sentiment is not as strong as it was this time last year, when tariff news briefly pushed the market higher.
Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives, asking how they rate their companies’ chances of success today as well as three to six months down the road. Responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since our 2008 inception.
Current Sentiment
After easing in early February, the Current Sentiment Index held steady at +53 this week (Figure 1). Sentiment is five points lower than it was a month ago, but has recovered 27 points from the October 2025 low of +26. This time last year, Sentiment was +66.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment edged five points lower to +54, now the lowest reading witnessed since November (Figure 2). Although down, it remains on the higher side compared to most readings of the past year. One year ago, Future Sentiment was stronger at +65.
What respondents are saying:
“Good, though West Coast rain for the next 10 days may hurt us.”
“Optimistic, interest rates are dropping and more jobs are starting.”
“Good, we buy as needed and remain conservative.”
“Fair, we are focused on plate supply. Specific segments continue to grow, while others (distribution) appear to be slowing in shipments.”
“Fair future outlook, but only if we see HRC pricing in the $800’s again.”
“As a consumer of steel, $1,000/ton is just too high for us to make normal margins.”
“Trump’s economic trade policies are hurting my business.”
“232 tariffs are impacting our US sales. Dismal future outlook assuming they remain in place.”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings and better highlight trends.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased this week for the eighth consecutive survey to +50.31, the highest rate since April 2025 (Figure 3, left). Compare this to the five-year low of +32.09 recorded last October.
The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the ninth survey in a row, ticking up to a ten-month high of +59.97 (Figure 3, right). For reference, this index dipped to a near-five-year low of +50.11 last June.
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
