Analysis
March 19, 2026
Final Thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
When nations eye their trade policy these days, are they only seeing tariffs? It might seem that way, especially after reading a presidential executive order or five over the last year. Is the condition spreading?
SMU’s Kristen DiLandro reported on the UK being on the verge of a quota reduction on steel and an increase in steel tariffs on imports. On Thursday, it was widely reported that this had gone through. A story in the Independent said the UK government will, from July, reduce tariff-free quota levels for steel imports by 60% vs. current arrangements. And it will double import taxes on steel entering the UK above these levels, from 25% to 50%.
The article said Trade Minister Sir Chris Bryant told Sky News:
“It’s not very Donald Trump. It’s very, very specific.”
It’s an interesting place to be when 50% tariffs on steel are being levied, but trade ministers are specifying “not very Donald Trump.”
The move cites the UK’s desire to protect its industry from global overcapacity.
An Independent article also quotes the UK Business and Trade Secretary as saying, “Making steel in the UK is vital for national security, critical infrastructure, and the wider economy.”
So one can assume there are some parallel assumptions in the UK policy, as this lines up with what the US has been saying about our own steel industry. The question is, how will this trend continue to develop?
Tit for tat
A report from Politico on Wednesday said the US plans to shorten the list of steel-containing products subject to high US tariffs. The article said that downstream EU items, from “cranes to furniture,” would be considered by the US Trade Representative for relief from the 50% US steel tariffs.
The Europeans would then move forward with their own agreement to relieve some US industrial products from EU tariffs.
As a result of these negotiations, the EU could greenlight a US-EU trade pact on March 26, according to an article in the EUobserver on Thursday.
But the agreement includes a “sunrise clause.” This would provide the EU with a mechanism “to immediately suspend the agreement if the Trump administration imposes new tariffs on any EU country because of their foreign policy decisions it deems unacceptable,” the article said.
Basically, in case of executive order, break agreement.
(Check out trade attorney Alan Price’s recent column here on what scenarios exist now that the US Supreme Court has struck down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs.)
USMCA?
As the US-EU trade pact inches forward, it will be interesting to see how negotiations with Canada and Mexico unfold for the USMCA. As Philip K. Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA), recently pointed out, the USMCA is up for its scheduled periodic review, not to be formally renegotiated.
Bilateral, trilateral, 5-D chess lateral… what form the discussions will take between the countries that eventually bears fruit is anybody’s guess. But it will definitely be a case of each nation rolling up its sleeves and getting down to brass tacks. Things have to move forward, whatever shape they take.
And beyond 2026, we’re going to have to wait until a change in administration to find out if this was all just a blip in global trade policy, or if it shapes the way trade takes place for years to come.
