Analysis
March 20, 2026
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices strengthen
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both increased this week, suggesting that steel buyers are highly optimistic for their businesses’ chances for current and future success.
The Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up to the highest rate recorded in the last 13 months. The Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index also increased, nearing one of its strongest levels of the past year.
Every other week, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking how they rate their companies’ chances of success today and in three to six months. Responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics we have tracked since 2008.
Current Sentiment
Current Sentiment inched up one point from early March to +59 this week, now the strongest it has been in over a year (Figure 1). Sentiment has recovered 33 points from the October 2025 low of +26 and is three points higher than it was this time last year.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment jumped five points to +61, shifting from one of the lowest readings of the year to the second highest (Figure 2). This index is now at one of the strongest measures of the past year, only surpassed by two +64 readings. One year ago, Future Sentiment was slightly higher at +64.
What respondents are saying:
“We believe pricing will be retreating in the summer months, so we have some optimism medium term.”
“We like the domestic focus as it brings more steel into our facility.”
“A lot of uncertainties, but in the future we should have a more clear path.”
“April and May contract prices could make things difficult if spot prices begin swinging lower in Q2.”
“232 continues to hurt over market access, and uncertainty around USMCA amendments may handcuff possible upside.”
“[Fair outlook] As an OEM, we prefer to see level and lower HRC pricing. Hard to budget for $1,100/ton!”
“[Fair outlook] Demand is no longer driving this market.”
“[Fair outlook] The Iran war is very destabilizing.”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight trends and smooth out short-term fluctuations.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA climbed for the tenth-straight survey to +52.12 this week, now at the highest it has been since July 2024 (Figure 3, left). For reference, this index dipped to +32.09 last October, a five-year low.
After increasing to a 10-month high in mid-February, the Future Sentiment 3MMA marginally declined again this week to +59.21 (Figure 3, right). This measure is strong in comparison to the past year but is on the low side historically. Compare this to the near five-year low of +50.11 recorded last June.
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
