SMU
March 22, 2026
Final Thoughts
Written by Stephen Miller
Since the Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA (reciprocal) tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were illegal, the subject of refunds has been circulating. A lower court has ruled refunds are due to importers affected by these tariffs, which amounted to an estimated $166 billion. The process to obtain refunds has not been formally established. However, companies are filing protective claims for refunds so as not to violate any potential deadlines that could be imposed.
It would seem US steelmakers may be due refunds for the importation of raw materials, like pig iron, direct-reduced iron(DRI), and some ferroalloys, most of which received no exemption from these tariffs. Regarding pig iron and DRI, both were subjected to a 10% tariff when imported from Ukraine, Brazil, and Trinidad. To quantify the level of tariffs collected, I turned to several sources in the US and the exporting countries to estimate volumes shipped and the price at which tariffs were levied. Since shipments in transit were exempt after the tariff went into effect on Aug 7, 2025, completely accurate figures could not be ascertained. Therefore, I just used figures from the fourth quarter of 2025.
For pig iron shipped from Brazil and Ukraine, I estimated 1.33 million metric tons were received during this period after checking shipments with the Brazilian Pig Iron Association (Sindifer) and the Ukrainian State Customs Service. The dollar amount of these shipments subjected to tariffs approximated $540 million. Therefore, at the prevailing 10% tariff rate, roughly $54 million was collected.
Regarding DRI from Trinidad, according to Census Bureau figures, approximately 435,000 tons were received and subject to a 10% duty in Q4’25. The tariffs collected on this are thought to be at least $13 million. This assumes a tariff value of $300/ton, which may not be exact.
The actual total of tariffs collected and subject to refund is larger than these amounts since I just used Q4’25 figures. But when all shipments are considered, the total tariffs collected will be well north of $70 million.
Most of these tariffs were paid by the steelmakers or their wholly-owned trading arms. So, these tariff refunds are due to either. Some pig iron or DRI importers are independent traders supported by the steelmakers. In this case, the trader would be eligible for the refund and then would negotiate with their customer for their share (I’m sure that would be a one-way proposition).
Pig iron is also used by the iron foundry industry. The foundry industry accounts for just under 1 million tons of total pig iron imports per year. They use basic, foundry, and nodular pig iron grades; the latter two cost much more than the basic grade. Virtually all of this amount is bought by pig iron traders or distributors who import the material without support from their consumers and distribute the material on a spot basis or by winning monthly or quarterly bidding invitations once the material is in or on its way to an inland warehouse. In this case, the foundry consumer may be hard-pressed to recoup the tariff. The distributor can say they are the ones who took the risk by importing the pig iron without support from the various customers and paid the tariffs. Therefore, these spoils are at least partly theirs. These conversations could get very interesting!
I was curious whether steelmakers would attempt to recover the tariffs they paid on pig iron and DRI. So, we asked two major mills that import these commodities and a trade association that represents them if they would like to comment and if they are pursuing refunds. One said no comment at this time, and we did not hear back from the others. It may be a touchy subject, since the industry has received significant support from the Trump Administration, especially through the increased tariffs under Section 232 and derivative duties. They may be shy about demanding tariff refunds. But – there’s still a lot of money on the table.
Steel 101 update
That being said, thank you to everyone who joined us in Monterrey for the Steel 101 course this week, and thank you to Ternium for hosting our group! Check out our LinkedIn page for some photos and stay tuned to hear more about our visit to one of the most technically advanced mills out there!
If you missed it, we have another Steel 101 course coming up in May. May 19-20, we’ll learn the fundamentals of steel and tour Steel Dynamics’ newest steel sheet mill in Sinton, Texas. Don’t miss it!
