Join us for a Community Chat with Timna Tanners on June 24!

SMU and AMU are pleased to announce that Wells Fargo Managing Director Timna Tanners will be joining us for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, June 24, at 11 am ET.

The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. You can register here. (Editor’s note: A recording and the accompanying slide decks will be available only to SMU and AMU subscribers.)

There will be a lot to talk about.

Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices are above $1,100 per short ton (st), and many think it’s only a matter of time before they breach $1,200/st. Meanwhile, lead times are stretched and inventories are lean. And so a 2026 rally that has defied nearly all expectations should keep going in the short-term.

But what happens as lead times stretch into Q4? (That’s not far away as you’d think with lead times into September at some mills.) Will we see import volumes rebound? And what happens in 2027 as new sheet mills from Nucor and Ternium come online?

Meanwhile, USMCA talks are well underway. Will we see a reduction in Section 232 tariffs as part of the review of the trade pact? Or is a 50% S232 tariff here to stay? Also worth considering: could we see separate rates for Canada and Mexico or for steel and aluminum?

Speaking of aluminum, how might prices and premiums react to a truce between the US and Iran? And if prices remain elevated, what are the risks of demand destruction and substitution?

And those are hardly the only negotiation going on. How will labor contract talks play out between U.S. Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union and Cleveland-Cliffs and the USW ahead of a Sept. 1 deadline? And when it comes to pricing contracts, will mills be able to negotiate lower CRU discounts, or will customers (some fed up with late deliveries) resist?

We’ll take your questions too! So make sure to think of some good ones for the Q&A.

Michael Cowden

Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.