SMU Survey: Lead times remain elevated on sheet and plate

Lead times by product

• The average production time for hot-rolled coil is now over seven and a half weeks, the longest recorded since October 2021.
• Cold rolled lead times are nearing nine and a half weeks, also the highest seen since late 2021.
• The average galvanized lead time edged up to nine weeks, to a high previously witnessed in late 2023.
• Galvalume production times marginally eased to eight and a half weeks following the two-and-a-half-year high seen earlier this month.
• Plate lead times eased to eight weeks on average, just a tenth of a week below the five-year high recorded two weeks ago.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product:

Compared to our previous market check, four of our lead-time ranges shifted this week:

• The shortest hot rolled lead time considered increased from five weeks to six, and the longest increased from 10 weeks to 12.
• The shortest galvanized lead time increased from six weeks to seven, and the longest declined from 12 weeks to 11.
• The shortest Galvalume lead time increased from seven weeks to eight, and the longest increased from 10 weeks to 11.
• The longest plate lead time considered increased from 10 weeks to 12.

Buyers predict stability

Nearly two-thirds of buyers surveyed (64%) believe lead times will be flat two months from now, slightly lower than in our previous survey. Of the remainder, 25% expect lead times to extend further, while 11% anticipate contractions. Comments included:

“Flat – Mills are so far behind that they can’t take on spot orders. Lead-times will remain extended, but mills are protecting their order books to catch up on late orders.”

“I expect lead times to remain relatively stable as demand begins to normalize. However, this could change if the large public infrastructure projects announced for the second half of the year in Mexico (such as rail and transportation projects) begin moving forward and generate additional steel demand, which could put upward pressure on lead times.”

“Flat – Demand is stable, but instability in the broader market may reduce it.”

“Flat – I think demand is picking up to where lead times will stay flat for the domestic mills. They’ll slide early in ’27 but not before.”

“Flat – Perhaps a few more mills coming back online will shorten lead times a bit, or at least keep them from getting longer.”

“Extending – Lead times are extremely long now but might slowly extend further.”

“Extending – My understanding is mills are already turning down orders.”

“Contracting – The mills have to catch up sometime, don’t they? They’re producing more than ever.”

Trends

To better highlight underlying trends, lead times can be measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. All five of our 3MMA lead times increased again this week, a trend in place since late 2025 (Figure 2).

Sheet 3MMA lead times are about two weeks longer than the two-year lows recorded last September, now at the highest levels seen since early 2024. The latest plate 3MMA is nearly two weeks longer than it was at the start of the year and is at its highest level since late 2021.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 6.9 weeks, cold rolled at 8.4 weeks, galvanized at 8.3 weeks, Galvalume at 8.4 weeks, and plate at 7.4 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.