Market Data
July 10, 2026
Sheet market expects minor shifts in market dynamics, price stability
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Some domestic hot-rolled coil market participants say they expect prices for hot-rolled coils to remain stable through the end of 2026.
The market participants predicted that mills would hold spot prices and incrementally tighten lead times. Continuing, that they’ll find imported product arrivals, experience seasonal demand dips and all conditions will culminate in stable prices throughout the summer.
Asked why prices would hold, not slip; sources said they anticipate mills won’t suddenly have much more capacity for spot orders. They noted that the seasonal annual dip won’t send demand into a precipitous decline. They contend that most in the steel industry forecasted for summer doldrums and seeing minor weekly dips in demand doesn’t cause them concern.
Market Commentary
Recently, a Midwest service center participant said it’s too hard to determine whether prices have peaked with so many moving components.
“I’m not quite sure if prices have peaked, but I think we won’t see a reversal in pricing until mid to late Q4,” he said.
A mill source, located in the same region, stated that the quietness of July’s demand might be attributable to the US holiday.
“The overall market felt quiet last week as half of the folks involved seemed to take vacation last week, and it feels like the other half are taking vacation this week,” he said. Adding, “It does seem like the HRC market remains hot with demand on our mills from all segments of the market. Last week’s market info had holiday noise in it, but still really good demand signals on us past the third quarter.”
A West Coast distributor contends that the market has been stable overall.
“We’re not experiencing any issues. Maybe times will slow down toward November when the holidays approach,” he said.
Prices
During SMU’s weekly price assessment on Tuesday, spot prices for HR held to the prior week’s range of $1,120-1,200 per short ton (st). Most spot transactions occurred at $1,160/st.
All prices are ex-work domestic mill.
