June service center shipments and inventories report

Flat rolled

US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply was down marginally in June, and lower for a sixth straight month. Shipping days of supply slipped to 44.5, according to SMU data.

That figure marks a 20% drop from 55.8 shipping days in June 2025. And it marks the lowest total since April 2021.

Flat roll inventories represented 2.02 months of supply in June, down 9.5% from 2.23 in May, and off nearly 24% from 2.66 months in June 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) decline in inventories was supported by a jump (+14%) in intake, even as shipments rose at a slower rate (+9%).

The driver of low inventories continues to be late shipments from domestic mills. When can mills catch up? Service centers report that their own external shipments are outpacing receipts from mills as lead times stretch out, a theme we have seen play out since mid-to-late Q1. Could mills catch up just in time for a new round of outages to begin in the fall? 

Service center shipments in June were just 2% above intake, outpacing inbound volumes only marginally. On-order volumes rose 5% to 1.9 million tons, more than 112% of inventory. June on-order material is the highest total since October 2023.

All told, service center shipments in June were 9.3% higher m/m and up about 9% year on year (y/y). The shipping pace remained high, despite June having 22 shipping days — two more days than May. The daily shipping rate was down 0.6% m/m but 4% higher y/y.

At the end of June, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were up 5.6% m/m and up 51% y/y. The numbers appear even more significant when compared with how lean inventories remain.

The latest SMU survey from July 8 showed lead times remained extended. The same survey showed, on average, 40% of service centers focused on building inventory. Fifty-two percent maintained their inventory levels, while just 8% reported material reductions.

Plate

US service center plate inventories were also relatively flat in June, a trend seen for much of the past four months. The trend comes on strong shipping levels and rising on-order volumes, according to SMU data.

At the end of June, service centers held 45.5 shipping days of supply of plate, down 0.9% from 45.9 in May. Plate supply in June represented 2.07 months, down from 2.30 months in May.

A notable recovery in intake came even as service centers’ external shipments rose but were again outpaced by receipts due to mill delays, the same trend we’ve seen in sheet. June inventories were marginally higher (+1.7%) m/m, while shipments saw a 12.8% bump vs. May.

Intake—which jumped by nearly 23% m/m— registered the second-highest total over the past 12 months in June, but was still ~3% below June 2025.

June plate supply was also down vs. year-ago levels, when service centers carried 59.4 shipping days of supply, or 2.83 months of supply.

Meanwhile, the daily shipping rate, at 4,728 tons, was up 2.6% m/m, and increased nearly 18% y/y. The mark was still 9% below April’s six-year high watermark of 5,209 tons.

There are still some questions about what’s driving the increase in demand. Some think buying reflects strong demand, a boost in several sectors, including construction and the military, while others see it as demand being pulled ahead of anticipated future price hikes.

Material on-order rose in June. It’s up 6% m/m, and up a staggering 100% y/y. It’s the highest on-order volume on record. At the end of June, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were up 3% from May and up more than 70% from June 2025.

While added domestic capacity has somewhat offset lower imports, plate lead times remain extended. They now stand above 8.5 weeks on average, up steadily from a month earlier, according to the latest SMU survey.

Still, most point to the lack of imports for the ongoing inventory squeeze. While material on order reaches top marks, some sources argue domestic production is insufficient to meet demand. And mills are unlikely to catch up