July service center shipments and inventories report

Flat rolled

US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply rose marginally in July, reversing course for the first time all year. Shipping days of supply ticked up to 45.6, according to SMU data.

That figure marks a 2.4% increase from 44.5 shipping days in June (the lowest total since April 2021) but is still down more than 22% vs. July 2025.

Flat-roll inventories represented 2.07 months of supply in July, up 2.4% from 2.02 in June. The figure was more than 22% below July 2025’s 2.66 months. The month-on-month (m/m) improvement in inventories was supported by a bump (+6.5%) in intake, as shipments were virtually even (-0.1%).

The driver of low inventories remains late shipments from domestic mills, as service centers continue to report their outbound shipments outpace incoming receipts from mills.

Service center shipments in July were more than 4% below intake, noticeably trailing inbound volumes. On-order volumes rose by more than 2% to 1.93 million tons, more than 112% of inventory. July on-order material is the highest total since October 2023.

All told, service center shipments in July were even m/m and up about 8% year on year (y/y). The shipping pace remained steady. Still, year-to-date (YTD) shipments are just 1.6% above 2025, while on-order is up nearly 25% in the same comparison.

At the end of July, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were up 2.2% m/m and up 47% y/y. The numbers appear even more significant when compared with how lean inventories remain.

Still, the sheet pricing dynamic remains largely tied to a supply squeeze rather than underlying demand. Inventories are down 16% YTD in July vs. 2025, while shipments are up 2.7% on the same period.

The latest SMU survey from Aug. 7 showed lead times remained extended. The same survey showed that, on average, 13% of service centers focused on building inventory. Seventy-four percent maintained their inventory levels, while the remaining 13% reported material reductions.

Plate

US service center plate inventories were also relatively flat in July, a trend seen for much of the past five months. The trend comes on strong shipping levels and rising on-order volumes, according to SMU data.

At the end of July, service centers also held 45.6 shipping days of supply of plate, up 0.3% from 45.5 in June. Plate supply in July represented 2.07 months, unchanged vs. June.

Intake continues to accelerate, jumping nearly 23% in July vs. the month prior, and was the highest total since October 2019. The results came as service centers’ external shipments again outpaced receipts by more than 6% due to mill delays—the same trend we’ve seen in sheet.

July inventories rose 3.2% m/m but were still 9.5% lower y/y. Shipments saw a 2.9% bump vs. June and a nearly 22% jump from a year ago.

July plate supply was down from year-ago levels, when service centers carried 61.3 shipping days of supply, or 2.79 months.

Meanwhile, the daily shipping rate, at 4,867 tons, was up 3% m/m, and increased nearly 22% y/y. The mark was still 7% below April’s six-year high watermark of 5,209 tons.

A clear difference between sheet and plate data is probably best highlighted by the YTD shipping comparison. While sheet has seen a marginal uptick (+1.6), plate shipments are up more than 17% YTD vs. 2025.

While both markets have been heavily impacted by trade barriers under the Trump administration, limiting product availability, plate demand has been strong, with a clear boost in shipments.

Material on-order eased in July. It’s down 2.5% m/m, yet still up a staggering 118% y/y. It’s the second highest on-order volume on record, bested only by June’s total. At the end of July, service centers’ shipping days of supply on order were down 5.3% from June but still up more than 79% from July 2025.

While added domestic capacity has somewhat offset lower imports, plate lead times remain extended. They now stand above 9.1 weeks on average, up steadily from a month earlier, according to the latest SMU survey.

Still, while domestic capacity appears to be insufficient to meet demand, the removal of imports has further exacerbated the ongoing inventory squeeze. And mills are unlikely to catch up.