SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices decline

Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices fell in September, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

Current Sentiment Index

SMU’s Current Scrap Sentiment Index declined five points to +88 this month from August. Though it’s a retreat from last month, the reading still represents the second-highest level so far this year.

Future Sentiment Index

Meanwhile, SMU’s Future Scrap Sentiment Index slipped four points month-over-month to +89. Likewise, this is also the second-highest reading so far in 2026, after the previous survey.

What’s going on?

The declines in the Scrap Sentiment Indices were quite minor this month.

Scrap sellers saw a strong sideways move in the US domestic market with a slight uptick on prime grades. The steel sector is running strong, and mills have a full forward order book. This is why sentiment remains elevated.

The scrap industry can look forward to increased export activity, strong domestic scrap demand, and the usually seasonal strengthening of prices entering the fourth quarter. This supports the possibility of strong readings in the near-term future.

Sentiment trends

Sentiment Indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth short-term variations and better highlight trends.

The Current Sentiment 3MMA was up to +85.58 vs +84.58 a month earlier. (Figure 3, left). The Future Sentiment 3MMA stands at +86.42, up from +85.58 (Figure 3, right).

About the SMU Scrap Sentiment Index

The SMU Scrap Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of ferrous scrap in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking scrap sentiment helps gauge future behavior. If you would like to be included in our scrap market surveys, please get in touch with us at smu@crugroup.com.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.