Market Data
November 2, 2026
Written by David Schollaert
Domestic raw steel production surged last week, reaching its highest output in almost two decades, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.
While the seesaw pattern continued for US production this past week, production swelled to its highest reading since Aug. 23, 2008, driven by a massive swing in the South.
The Chicago Business Barometer slipped in October but remained in expansion for a second month. The Barometer reading from ISM Chicago and MNI Indicators came in at 55.3 in October, down 3.5 points from September but up 8.2 points from contraction in August. The Barometer is a diffusion index. Readings above 50 indicate improving business conditions. Those below 50 indicate a contraction in activity.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a fourth straight week, while activity rose further in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared with this time last year, 57 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count rose by six to 226 rigs this week, gaining ground for a second consecutive week. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 39 more rigs operating today.
In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.