Category: Analysis

Prices for six of the seven steelmaking raw materials SMU tracks are increased from January to February, according to our latest analysis.

President Trump has directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate copper imports into the US under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 on national security grounds.

One buyer summed up the prevailing sentiment: “Everything is pointing up — pricing, sentiment, order activity. But the real test will come once the immediate reactionary buying subsides. Will there be enough true demand to support these levels through mid-year? That’s the big unknown.”

It won't be so easy to restart idled aluminum production in the US, AMU says.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, inventories, imports and evolving market events.

As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.

Market participants might disagree over how high flat-rolled steel price might go and for how long they might remain elevated. But there is near total agreement on one thing: Prices are up sharply again this week. The gains come on the heels of waves of mill price increases (for sheet and for plate), expectations that scrap prices will rise again in March, and the threat of tariffs looming over the market.

Evraz North America (NA) has followed Nucor and SSAB with a plate price increase of its own: up $160 per short ton (st). The increase was effective immediately for all new orders of carbon, high-strength low-alloy, and normalized and quenched-and-tempered plate products, as well as for hot-rolled coil, the steelmaker said in a letter to […]

As of Monday, Feb. 24, the steelmaker's list price for HR stood at $860 per short ton (st), up $40/st from last week. The company has increased HR prices by $110/st over the past four weeks, according to SMU's mill price announcement calendar.

Nucor aims to increase prices for steel plate by $160 per short ton (st) with the opening of its April order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the increase was effective with orders received on Feb. 24 in a letter to customers dated the same day.

Brazilian long products producer Gerdau is now considering siting a 600,000 ton per year specialty steel plant in the United States, rather than Mexico as initially planned, in the wake of President Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on steel imports into the US.

Buyers are optimistic for a strong scrap market in March, driven by limited scrap inflows from severe weather disruptions and increasing mill demand.

The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.

US primary output is at its lowest level this century

Cleveland-Cliffs said it will open its April order book for spot material at $900 per short ton (st). The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the increase was necessary because of “rapidly changing market conditions” in a letter to customers dated Friday, Feb. 21.

US sheet prices surge following tariff announcement

SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.

Some of you have told me that the current market feels about as crazy as early 2021 when demand snapped back after the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Others have said it might be more like late February/early March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and, in the process, caused […]

SMU's Stephen Miller provides an update on the raw materials sector.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]

SSAB has increased plate prices by a total of $240/st in less than a month. That tally results from the current increase, an increase of $80/st in early February, and another of $60/st in late January, according to SMU’s price announcement calendar.

Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.

NLMK USA has opened its April order book at new, higher base prices for steel sheet, according to market participants. The steelmaker is seeking at least $900 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil and at least $1,100/st for cold-rolled and coated products, they said.

U.S. Steel has increased prices for flat-rolled steel by at least $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker now seeks a minimum of $850/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil. And it seeks at least $1,050/st for cold-rolled and coated base prices, they said.

To say we’ve entered a “Brave New World” since Jan. 20 might be an exaggeration, but we’ve definitely entered a different one.

Sheet and plate prices surged higher this week on a wave of what some called “panic buying” following the Trump administration’s announcement of stricter Section 232 measures last week.

US steel mills produced an estimated 1,670,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.

Nucor has increased its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil for a fourth consecutive week.

I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).

New duties could give companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum revenue gains that could boost production