US steel exports fall in February: Commerce

The bulk of US exports go to US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners, with half of February exports going to Mexico and 43% to Canada. Other notable destinations, each accounting for 1% or less of total exports, included the Dominican Republic, China, the Bahamas, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, India, Turkey, and Colombia.

For detailed information on specific product or country exports, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor

Monthly averages

Analyzing steel exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can better highlight underlying trends by smoothing out monthly fluctuations (Figure 2, left). After peaking in July 2023 at a five-year high of 887,000 st, 3MMA export volumes declined by the end of 2023 following typical seasonal slowdowns. Volumes partially recovered through mid-2024, though not to the highs seen in 2023, then fell to a two-year low in December 2024. The 3MMA has increased each of the last two months, rising to 690,000 st in February. This rate is notably lower than the same time last year (741,000 st).

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to better showcase long-term trends by eliminating seasonal variation (Figure 2, right). From this perspective, annualized exports have declined over the past year, though they remain elevated compared to 2019-22 levels. The February 12MMA slipped to a 22-month low of 758,000 st, down from a five-and-a-half-year high of 805,000 st recorded one year prior.

Exports by product

Flat-rolled steel exports declined in February across all six of the sheet and plate products we track. Export volumes for all six products were lower than their 3MMA and 12MMA rates through February, except for cut-to-length plate and galvanized, which exceeded their 3MMA. Significant movements from January to February include:

• Hot-rolled sheet exports declined 35% to a 26-month low.
• Cold-rolled sheet exports fell 35% to a 14-month low.
• Exports of coiled plates decreased 32% to a 16-month low.

Compared to the same month last year, February exports were lower across the board this year. Significant year-over-year (y/y) changes were seen in exports of hot-rolled sheet (-49%), coiled plate (-41%), and other metallic coated (-28%).

Figure 4 shows a history of exports by product on a 3MMA basis.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.