Category: Analysis

Speculation has already begun on what February has in store for the US scrap market after it rose $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in January,

US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply recovered in December, after trending lower from September to November.

Sheet prices are set to stay weak in China, hold steady in India, while they are set to rise in the EU and US due to protectionist limits on imports.

Last week, the government of China reported a trade balance of $1.12 trillion in 2025, the largest merchandise trade surplus in history. And this surplus was despite massive tariffs imposed by the United States and other countries, partly in an effort to rein in China’s trade juggernaut.

Though they’re hopeful, domestic sheet market sources didn’t share a bullish outlook on the market this week.

As more contracts are up for negotiation in 2026, labor is poised play a larger role in operational planning at a time when trade issues and high prices also are in play.

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market contracted from September to October, driven primarily by slowing domestic mill shipments, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

SMU's steel market chatter this week.

The export markets in the Mediterranean Basin have shown firmness over the last month and have started to build in the first half of January.

We are officially under 30 days away from SMU's Tampa Steel Conference. And things are really starting to heat up. Well, at least the temperatures in Florida are staying balmy while much of the rest of the country maintains a chill.

The opening weeks of 2026 are revealing a subtle but important change in the HRC futures market, as tightening physical conditions begin to exert greater influence over pricing dynamics.

The volume of steel shipped outside of the country increased 11% from September to October 2025 to a seven-month high of 662,000 short tons (st), according to recently released data from the US Department of Commerce.

The price spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap widened for a fourth consecutive month in January, based on SMU’s most recent pricing data.

The galvanized steel market has kicked off the year with a firmer tone, marked by rising prices, lengthening lead times, and a noticeable shift in buyer sentiment. Service centers and distributors on HARDI’s latest sheet metal and coil handling council call described a market that is not overheating but steadily tightening.

Reflections on visiting Venezuela in a different era.

The majority of SMU’s sheet and plate price indices rose this week, with multiple products climbing to new multi-month highs

Ferrous scrap prices jumped on all the products SMU tracks in January, scrap sources said.

According to recently released final US Commerce Department data, US steel imports rebounded 11% month on month (m/m) in October 2025 after falling to a multi-year low one month earlier. The latest license figures suggest imports eased back by 3% in November and by another 2% in December, with trade again nearing historical lows.

A look at some of the results from SMU's January scrap market survey.

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap continued to climb this month, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey. However, the Future Sentiment Index remained unchanged.

The imported basic pig iron market has shown upward price movement over the last week.

SMU’s January ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

A sneak peek at the first survey results of 2026.

As we move into 2026, it’s time to look forward. While the “Donroe Doctrine,” Venezuela, and Greenland absorb significant press attention, important trade developments will also continue to make headlines this year. The unprecedented changes we saw in 2025 will continue in 2026, particularly in the areas of IEEPA and tariffs, USMCA, and the WTO.

This CRU Insight provides details on the decline of Venezuela’s steel, DRI, and iron ore industries, which highlights the potential scope of recovery with the right policy agenda and support.

Steel plate market participants think increasing spot prices and growing order volumes could stick around. That’s two encouraging signs for the year ahead, they said. Oregon Steel Mills, SSAB, and Nucor all increased base prices for plate products by $40 per short ton (st) in the final weeks of December. SMU data also indicates that mills […]

Shipments of heating and cooling equipment fell for the sixth straight month in November, reaching the lowest rate seen since October 2016, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

The Current SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index has rebounded from our previous market check in December. However, Future Buyers’ Sentiment has edged down, according to our latest survey data.

It remains unclear how long the repairs will take, as the second fire in November damaged the hot mill’s finishing mill.

The US steel market has gotten off to a fast start. Prices are up as lead times extend. And the news is coming in hot too.