Category: Analysis

Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices held steady again this week while prices for coated products and plate continued to tick upward.

SMU’s July 10 Flat-Rolled Steel Survey results paint a picture of a steel market being squeezed from every direction. Tariffs are holding prices up and giving mills a clear advantage, while manufacturers and traders say the policy is pushing their costs higher.

SMU’s scrap prices came in soft sideways in July, according to market sources.

Testimony at last week’s Section 301 hearing put Brazilian pig iron in the spotlight. Domestic steelmakers and Brazilian suppliers warned that proposed forced labor tariffs would hit a critical US input for which there is no domestic substitute.

Domestic raw steel output eased to an 11-week low last week, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures

The US scrap market has settled soft sideways in July, sources told SMU.

The Commerce Department has opened a new Section 232 national security investigation of anthracite and metallurgical coal imports. The department is seeking detailed input from the industry on supply risks, import dependence, and potential national security impacts.

Notably, pig iron is not excluded from the proposed Brazil measures. This would represent a change from the Brazil EEPA tariffs, which excluded pig iron.

Aluminum prices have spent the past month pricing in a calmer Middle East, while developments in the Strait of Hormuz have suggested anything but.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices were once again strongly optimistic this week, based on responses collected from steel executives in our latest market survey.

Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices were unchanged in the US this week, while offshore prices varied, though mostly trended up.

On July 1, CRU launched a US Galvalume coil benchmark price to serve this growing market.

Read the latest CRU Outlook on global sheet prices and the market for the coming months.

The results of the latest SMU flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members.

If a trend of flat lead times holds, it would represent a change. And we’ve also seen a few of the other indicators we track slip from historic highs – so the potential shift is worth paying attention to.

The scrap market for July is partially settled except for the three largest scrap buyers in the country.

Toyota Motor North America plans to invest $3.6 billion to expand its San Antonio manufacturing campus.

Steel mill lead times for flat-rolled steel this week remained extended at historical highs. Plate production times crept out further, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled (HR/CR) coil saw minor contractions.

The majority of steel buyers we polled this week reported that mills are holding firm on new order spot prices.

A snapshot of our scrap market survey with some respondent comments included.

The recent announcement that the United States will seek changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before agreeing to extend it should surprise no one. In fact, this is exactly what the agreement envisioned.

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap increased in July as Future Sentiment slipped, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

Wire rod imports from Algeria face new countervailing duties (CVDs) in the US.

SMU’s average price for domestic HR was unchanged vs. last week. In offshore markets last week, while prices diverged, the dynamic between stateside and imported product varied little.

CRU's Josh Spoores takes a deep dive into the HR futures market.

Market reaction to Nucor’s move was mixed. Some sources said a flat CSP reflected concerns that further increases in US HR prices could attract more import competition. Others expressed frustration. Their view: CSP has kept a lid on prices, something that shouldn’t happen when many buyers remain more concerned about availability than price.

The scrap export market in both Europe and the US continued to decline after the activity of last week became confirmable.

The investigation follows requests from US producers Nucor and Steel Dynamics.

South Korean conglomerate Posco, which has expanded far beyond its original steel making activities, is to concentrate on expanding in business areas which support industrial security and supply chain resilience, Posco Chairman Chang In-hwa said. 

Oil and gas drilling activity in the US picked up over the past week, while drilling in Canada slowed, according to the latest Baker Hughes rig counts.