SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times hold at elevated levels

Steel mill lead times held steady this week on sheet products and marginally eased on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Production times continue to hold at or near multi-year highs, territory they have been in for two months.

Lead times for sheet products remain roughly half a week longer than they were at the beginning of the year, similar to the high levels seen in late 2023. Plate production times marginally eased this week following the four-year high set two weeks ago, but remain almost a week longer than they were at the start of the year.

The average production time for hot-rolled coil is just over six and a half weeks. Cold rolled and galvanized are around eight weeks, while Galvalume is closer to eight and a half weeks. Plate is just over seven weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our previous market check, three of our five of our lead-time ranges shifted this week:

The shortest hot rolled lead time we considered increased from four weeks to five.
The longest galvanized lead time we considered decreased from 11 weeks to 10.
The longest plate lead time considered decreased from nine weeks to eight.

Buyers continue to predict stability

Just over half of respondents (54%) predict lead times will be flat two months from now, slightly down from our prior survey. The remainder remains split; 25% believe lead times will continue to extend, while 21% expect contractions. Comments included:

“We think we’ll see a correction in the summer, on the back of soft demand, more imports and outage season being over.”

“Extended now with late orders on the books, hopefully being responsible with bookings.”

“Only a few mills are extended.”

“Mill outages will cause lead times to extend.”

“Demand is stable, but instability in the broader market may reduce demand.”

“Flat then quickly contracting.”

Trends

To better highlight trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. All of our sheet and plate 3MMAs extended yet again this week, continuing a six-month trend (Figure 2).

Sheet 3MMA lead times have extended by almost two weeks compared to the two-year lows seen last September, though they are less than a week above levels seen one year ago. The latest plate 3MMA is one and a half weeks longer than it was both six months and one year ago.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 6.2 weeks, cold rolled at 7.8 weeks, galvanized at 7.7 weeks, Galvalume at 8.2 weeks, and plate at 6.7 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.