Analysis
April 28, 2026
Nucor sees strong demand, record shipments, and higher prices as 2026 builds momentum
Written by Laura Miller
Executives from Nucor Corp. said US steel demand remains stable, with pockets of strength in data centers, energy, border fence work, and infrastructure.
They provided the update on a conference call on Tuesday morning to discuss the Charlotte, N.C.-based steel company’s first-quarter earnings results.
The company reported record quarterly steel mill shipments of 7 million tons, the highest in its history. Structural steel shipments reached levels not seen since 2021.
Backlogs increased across the business. Steel mill backlog rose to 4.7 million tons, up 20% from year-end. Steel products backlog grew 9%.
Chair and CEO Leon Topalian said customers in nonresidential construction are “busier than anything” he’s seen in his 30-year career, with structural demand supported by data centers, LNG terminals, pipelines, bridges, and manufacturing products.
Sheet and plate markets
Sheet and plate shipments set new quarterly records, the company said. First-quarter shipments of sheet products rose 21% sequentially and 14% year over year to 3,394,000 tons. Plate shipments of 647,000 tons increased 17% over the prior quarter and 12% over the same quarter a year earlier, according to a presentation with the earnings call.
Nucor said its sheet strategy is focused on discipline and avoiding speculative over-ordering. “We like slow and steady, and our customers are liking slow and steady,” commented Noah Hanners, executive vice president of sheet products.
On sheet pricing, Hanners said, “The rally we’re in is probably the strongest kind of fundamentals we’ve seen for some time.” He cited service center shipments trending up, and HVAC and nonresidential construction customers reporting improving second-half outlooks.
Plate demand remains strong, Nucor said, supported by energy and infrastructure.
Trade policy
Nucor said Section 232 tariffs and trade remedies continue to reduce import pressure. Import share fell from 22% in early 2025 to about 15% in the first quarter of 2026. And the company expects imports to retreat further, anticipating the full effects of last year’s coated steel trade case and Section 232 tariffs, as well as a pending OCTG trade case.
The company praised the Trump administration’s decision to reaffirm the 50% tariff on steel and apply tariffs to the full value of derivative products. “These measures are working to ensure a more level playing field for domestic producers,” Topalian said.
Topalian also commented that USMCA discussions must address Canadian steel subsidies and the use of North American channels as “back doors” into the US market.
Steel prices
Hanners explained that fundamentals, not speculation, support the current steel price rally. Inventory levels remain modest, and imports are tracking at 4 million tons or less, down significantly from 9 million tons in 2024. “So there’s a 5 million-ton window of serviceable market for domestic suppliers. That’s a huge impact to the positivity with which we see the market today,” he commented.
Nucor expects higher realized pricing in the second quarter, especially in sheet and plate. Rising raw material costs will partially offset margin gains.
Capex and investments
Nucor invested $661 million in the first quarter. About 40% went to the new West Virginia sheet mill. Total 2026 capex remains on track at $2.5 billion.
The company continues to advance major projects, including the West Virginia sheet mill (commissioning through 2026), a new galvanizing line at Berkeley County, S.C., new utility tower plants in Indiana and Utah, a new micro mill in North Carolina, and a new melt shop in Arizona.
The executives noted construction of a second galvanizing line at the sheet mill in Berkeley, S.C., is advancing, with equipment commissioning planned for the middle of the year. Production is expected in the fall.
Outlook
Nucor expects stronger results as 2026 progresses, supported by firm nonresidential demand, improving sheet and plate pricing, and rising contributions from recent investments.
The company expects domestic steel consumption to be flat to up 2% in 2026.
Shipments grew 6% in 2025, and Nucor expects shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026.
The company is running at about 87% utilization, with room to increase output, according to Topalian.
A “pent-up tsunami of earnings power” from recent investments has not yet hit the balance sheet, he noted.
