U.S. consumer confidence lost momentum in November. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined for the month, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) continued to advance. The board’s composite value of consumer confidence in November was 135.7, down from 137.9 in October. The 3MMA, which smooths the data to reduce monthly volatility, increased from […]
This is the first time we have done this analysis since our April publication and we were surprised that the results for sheet and strip products weren’t as good as we expected. Our analysis is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis […]
Returns from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire show a growing percentage of manufacturing companies reporting service center spot pricing on flat rolled products as being lower than what they saw at the beginning of November. Seventy-three percent of the manufacturing respondents reported seeing slipping spot prices this past week. This is an increase of […]
Metalforming firms are expecting a decline in business conditions and new orders during the next three months, according to the November 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. The PMA is a monthly economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 122 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada. Current average shipping levels were steady in […]
The attitudes of steel buyers and sellers, as measured by this week’s SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire, show mixed feelings in the marketplace following the midterm elections. Current Sentiment was an impressive +65 measured as a single data point. Future Sentiment dropped -7 points to +58. Both are well within the “optimistic” side of […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products are at or near their shortest of the year. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. The less busy the mill, the more likely they are to negotiate on price. Responses […]
Steel mills remain open to price negotiations on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated products, but not plate, report buyers canvassed by Steel Market Update this past week. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled and plate steel characterize price negotiations with the mills. The steelmakers’ greater willingness to compromise on […]
Two out of three respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said they remain concerned about the possible negative impacts of trade tariffs on their business and that of their customers. The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum remain a serious obstacle to the new North American free trade […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. dollar has on average been relatively stable in the last three months against the currencies of the other steel trading nations. In […]
Durable goods orders fell 4.4 percent in October, heralding a weak start to the fourth quarter and a softening in business investment. The drop was the steepest monthly decline since July 2017. Volatile aircraft orders drove most of the decline, with commercial aircraft orders diving 21.4 percent and defense aircraft orders plummeting 59.3 percent. Orders […]
Editor’s note: Following is an edited excerpt from the 2019 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook published by Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies and the E. J. Ourso College of Business. The past two decades have seen a dramatic change in the energy landscape along the Gulf Coast with the “revolution” created by unconventional gas […]
By Lisa Morrison, CRU Principal Economist As of Nov. 15, with votes still to be counted in some districts, the Democrats had won 230 seats, and Republicans 199 seats, in the House of Representatives, where 218 of 435 seats constitutes a majority. Democrats that were elected by flipping a Republican seat are a more varied […]
Manufacturing in New York State strengthened more than expected in November. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rose two points to 23.3 as new orders and shipments showed moderate growth. Forty-one percent of respondents reported that general business conditions had improved over the month, while 18 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Manufacturers […]
Steel Facing Stiff Competition from Other Products This article is regularly published for our Premium users, but we decided to share it with our entire readership this month. If you are interested in upgrading to a Premium subscription, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475. Steel is becoming less competitive compared to aluminum, plastic and wood. […]
This report examines the import share of sheet, plate, long and tubular products and 16 subcategories through September. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through September and in 12 months through September for the four product groups and the 16 subcategories. Supply to the market is the total of domestic […]
“The glass ceiling is myth that gives you an excuse to fail.” A bold statement to make at a gathering of professional women, but that is what keynote speaker Mary Lindsey, Vice President and CFO Commercial Metals Co., said at the Association of Women in the Metal Industries annual conference last week. “There is too much […]
The Keystone XL pipeline, which was given the go-ahead by an executive order from President Trump, has been blocked once again by a federal judge in Montana, who ruled that the administration had not considered all the potential impacts of the project as required by law. The decision could further stall the controversial pipeline, which […]
Economic activity expanded across the United States with the majority of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth in the September-October period, according to the Fed’s Beige Book released late last month. However, several Districts indicated that firms faced rising materials and shipping costs, uncertainties over the trade environment and difficulties finding […]
This evening’s price and price momentum discussion comes after a number of conversations held with flat rolled steel service center CEO’s and a trading company executive on Thursday and Friday of last week. The words “mud” and “murky” were prominent as the steel distributors try to figure out where things are headed as we enter […]
Steel service centers are struggling to peg the spot end user markets and what price levels they need to be offering to their spot flat rolled customers, based on the results obtained from last week’s flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis performed by Steel Market Update. Steel Market Update follows the service center […]
Nearly nine out of 10 of the steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire earlier this week believe the domestic mills will be unsuccessful in their attempts to collect the $40 price increased they announced this time last month. Since those announcements, flat rolled steel prices are little changed, if not down […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The U.S. midterm elections brought few surprises; voter turnout was exceptional, the Republicans gained a majority in the Senate, and the Democrats in the House. What does this mean for U.S. policy and growth? Our view is that there is some scope for additional fiscal policy easing, which would […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index saw both the current and future indices as slightly more optimistic than what Steel Market Update reported during the middle of October. Current Sentiment was measured at +62, up +3 points from our last analysis. Future Sentiment at +65 improved by +12 points from what we reported two weeks […]
Most buyers tell Steel Market Update that flat rolled mills are open to price negotiations on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products. The notable exception is plate. Two out of three respondents to SMU’s latest market trends questionnaire report that plate mills will not compromise on price, while one-third have found some wiggle […]
Lead times for Galvalume and plate products shortened up a bit in the past two weeks, but otherwise lead times for flat rolled products have seen little change in October or November, despite the price hike announcements by the major mills. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the […]
Oil and gas companies, and their steel suppliers, were relieved to learn late Tuesday that Proposition 112 failed to get enough support among the voters who cast ballots in Colorado. The highly contentious measure, which pitted the energy industry against anti-fracking environmentalists, failed by a 57-43 percent margin. Proposition 112 would have more than doubled […]
The Census Bureau provides monthly data on total U.S. manufacturing inventories, shipments and new orders, as well as data for individual industries, including steel products. The Census Bureau data provides a useful reality check on data from steel industry trade groups such as the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Metals Service Center Institute. […]
Net job creation in October totaled 250,000 positions. Construction and manufacturing gains were both strong, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work in manufacturing and […]
Labor productivity grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018. The average of the last three quarters has been 0.3 percent. Unit labor costs increased 1.2 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are reported quarterly […]
The employment situation in the United States is excellent and continues to improve, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Rising employment and wages are the main contributor to GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, […]