HR Futures: Low-key market despite Trump tariffs
Despite the hand-wringing and head-scratching about the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy, the HRC futures market has been relatively subdued since our last writing of this article.
Despite the hand-wringing and head-scratching about the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy, the HRC futures market has been relatively subdued since our last writing of this article.
Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.
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After holding its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil steady for three weeks at $930 per short ton (st), Nucor lowered the price this week by $20/st.
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices edged lower again this week, slipping four weeks in a row now. Most offshore markets mirrored the move, ticking down marginally as well.
Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.
Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil remained unchanged this week.
Chinese export prices for longs were almost steady this week, while those for flats generally declined as producers cut prices to secure deals.
The CME Midwest HRC futures market’s response to Trump’s election and subsequent comments about blanket 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was surprisingly counterintuitive.
SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.
The pig iron markets have been quiet for the last several weeks, as tariff implementation on imports into the US became a reality. There has been debate on which party will have to pay the tariff. A recent transaction could provide the answer to that question.
The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.
Iron ore prices were largely steady in March, hovering around $100–102 per dry metric ton (dmt) in a quiet market.
Steel prices slipped again this week, with all five of SMU’s sheet and plate indices trending lower for the second week in a row.
There are several other tariffs implications concerning the ferrous raw materials sector. In addition to tariffs on DRI/HBI imports, there will be also be a tariff on raw materials imported to domestically based metallics producers.
Nucor lowered its weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil this week after holding prices steady for the past two weeks.
The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap narrowed in April after widening since January, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
Cleveland-Cliffs opened its May order book for spot material at $975 per short ton (st).
A look at the HR futures market.
This week is the first time all of our indices have moved lower in unison since July 2024.
The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump as explained on Wednesday afternoon has rattled virtually every market. This policy has some advantages for the steelmaking sector, but there may be some disadvantages that were not considered, especially for the EAF producers of flat-rolled.
Nucor’s consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil remains unchanged again this week. The pause over the past two weeks stands in contrast to the nine-week rally that saw the company increase prices regularly by double-digits. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker told customers on Monday that this week’s consumer spot price (CSP) for HR coil […]
Market dynamics are shifting rapidly, with futures pricing diverging from physical fundamentals, creating a complex landscape for steel traders.
Sheet and plate prices were mixed on Tuesday as the market took a wait-and-see approach to the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The price of pig iron for the US market remains firm despite a potential drop in domestic ferrous scrap prices going into April.
Another eventful week in the physical and financial steel markets is coming to a close, but with a markedly different tone than the last update at the end of February.
The threat of tariffs over the past two months has been a springboard for US prices. But the Section 232 reinstatement on March 13 narrowed the domestic premium over imports on a landed basis.
SMU's steel price indices moved in differing directions this week but remained largely stable as cautious buyers await clarity on pending steel tariffs and trade cases.
After eight weeks of double-digit price increases on hot-rolled (HR) coil, Nucor slowed the price rise this week with an increase of $5 per short ton.
Over the past couple of weeks, Midwest HRC futures have been drifting lower on light volume. This begs the question if the rally has run out of steam, or is it catching its breath after ripping roughly $150 in less than two weeks? The April CME Midwest HRC future made an intraday high at $976 […]