Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the first quarter of 2016. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down from 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, and […]
Manufacturing continues to be sluggish in the Midwest according to the latest survey by MNI Indicators. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer dropped back into contraction for a reading of 49.3, the lowest level since February and the sixth time below 50 in the past 12 months. Both new orders and production fell below 50 between […]
Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.40 in January 2015 and has had a mixed performance ever since. In 2016 month over month growth has been positive for two months and negative for two month. In April M/M growth on […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
According to a report by Platts, Eurofer has petitioned the European Commission to expand its AD investigation into imports of HRC from China to include HRC from Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Iran and the Ukraine. Charles de Lusignan, Communications Manager for Eurofer, said he could not confirm or deny that report. It is Eurofer’s policy not […]
One of the most important indices a steel buyer (or seller) can follow is that of the value of the U.S. dollar vs. the currency of the key steel trading nations. As the dollar value rises or falls, commodities, including steel, tend to be affected. Currency update articles are normally reserved for our Premium Members […]
New orders for durable goods in April increased 3.4 percent to $235.9 billion from March’s upwardly revised figure of 1.9 percent, according to the advance report from the Department of Commerce. Durable goods are manufactured products that are expected to last at least three years. Transportation orders led the increase with a jump of 8.9 […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of April 2016, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in April were 83,920,000 metric tons, a decrease of 2.2 percent from the previous month but an increase of 4.6 percent from […]
Steel Market Update was speaking with a trader on the West Coast about the USS/POSCO $150 per ton ($7.50/cwt) price increase announcement made late last week. The expectation is for California Steel Industries (CSI) to open their order books early this week. The trader shared a story about the steel market that existed in 2004 […]
The following article was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Here is how Crunch Risk saw hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures trading over the past week: HRC Steel Hot Rolled futures (HRC) have traded modest volume this week (9280 Short Tons). Falling prices of inputs and steel in Asia have given […]
The Architecture Billings Index score was 50.6 in April, down from 51.9 in March. It is the third consecutive month the Index has been above 50 indicating increasing demand for design activity at architectural firms. The new projects inquiry index was 56.9 compared 58.1 last month. “Architects continue to report a wide range of business […]
Manufacturing conditions were essentially unchanged in Philadelphia in May. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook registered -1.8 on the diffusion index, the eighth month of negative readings in the last nine months. The slip was a surprise to analysts who forecast a rise to 3.0 for the index. The new orders index decreased from […]
New York manufacturers reported declining general business conditions in the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline index fell 19 points to -9.0. The indexes for shipments and new orders both fell into negative numbers at -1.94 and -5.54, respectively. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the index rose from -2.15 in April to […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through March 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
Auto/Steel Partnership – May 11, 2016 — In an effort to assist automakers in meeting stringent fuel economy requirements, the Auto/Steel Partnership (A/SP) announced today the Hemming of Thin Gauge Advanced High-Strength Steel (AHSS) project achieved a 30 percent weight savings using thinner gauge AHSS for automotive closure panels. “The Hemming team achieved positive results […]
Supply is the over-riding issue affecting steel buyers today. Supply is constrained for a number of reasons, some expected and some by chance. We wrote an article earlier this week about two situations affecting steel buyers in the United States. The accident at CSN in Brazil took out their lone blast furnace costing them about […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the first estimate of the first quarter of 2016 was 0.54 percent, down from 1.38 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2015. Normally there are two revisions of the first estimate and sometimes three. Revisions to the four quarters of 2015 were +0.4 percent, +1.59 percent, +0.5 percent and […]
Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence declined from 96.1 in March to 94.2 in April. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 160,000 jobs were added in April, down from 208,000 in March. February and March were revised down by a total of 19,000. An explanation of the BLS report is included at the end of this piece. The three month […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how he saw trading over the past week: For those of you who don’t know, it’s Cinco De Mayo! So I say “Hay Caramba”. If you want to […]
The April 2016 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business reported the April PMI registered at 50.8 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percent from March. The PMI reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity on a national basis expanded for the second month in a row after five consecutive months of contraction. The growth in manufacturing was […]
Global manufacturing growth ground to a near-standstill in April, according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index was at 50.1 for April and was the second weakest reading in 40 months. A reading of 50 signals no change. Production output and new orders were muted in most markets and international trade volumes […]
If we could sum up the month of April in one word it would be, wow! We saw flat rolled steel prices jump by $90 per ton from the last week of March until the last week of April. Our HRC average for the month of April jumped by $87 per ton, while the CME […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI, dropped 3.2 points to 50.4 in April indicating a slow start to the second quarter. New orders and order backlogs both fell sharply during the month. Inventories, which have been relatively stable in the past few months, increased to their highest point since October 2015 but were still […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ peaked on January 20th at 126.2, and on April 15th (latest figure available) was rated at 119.7, a decline of 5.2 percent. This is the lowest value since November 3rd 2015 (Figure 1). On March 15th the Fed held rates constant and cut its projection for the […]