Consumer Confidence rose from an upwardly revised 94.0 in February to 96.2 in March. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. Our SMU analysis is exactly the opposite from the official version. This is not to say who is right and who is not but to point out to our members […]
March saw flat rolled steel prices rising throughout the month. SMU benchmark hot rolled average for the month was $427 per ton. This was slightly lower than Platts which revised their HRC number on the 30th which took their average up to $432 per ton. Both Platts and SMU monthly averages were higher than the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is commonly called, surged six points in March to 53.6. The bounce back from February’s 8 point contraction was due to strong gains in production, new orders and order backlogs. The employment index rose above 50 in March to its highest level since April 2015. Inventories […]
Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are expecting business conditions to falter a bit during the next three months. The March PMA Business Conditions Report indicated a minor downward trend with 25 percent of participants predicting that economic activity will improve in the next three months (down from 30 percent in February), 59 percent expecting […]
Japan steelmaker JFE Holdings and Nucor Corp reportedly are in talks to build a jointly run steel plant in Mexico. JFE plans to invest $264 million in the project, according to the Nikkei Asian Review. The plant will have an annual capacity of 400,000 tons and will service the Mexican auto industry, supplying steel for […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how they saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets:Wow what a difference a week makes! Like a lot of you, I was on vacation […]
The Architecture Billings Index made a slight gain in February, posting a score of 50.3 after falling to 49.6 in January. The score above 50 indicates a minor increase in design services for the month. The new projects inquiry index was 59.4, up from 59.3 the previous month. The design contract index was 51.7. “March […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in the Fifth District in March, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index registered 22, surging from -4 to its highest level since April 2010. Shipments and new orders both jumped this month. The shipments index gained 38 points climbing to a reading […]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped lower than expected in February for reading of -0.29 percent from +0.41 percent in January. The reading of -0.29 indicates below average growth for the national economy. The four main components of the headline index, production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last week reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
The following HRC and BUS futures market trading article was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Here is how Jack and Andre Marshall saw trading this week and what the forward curve looks like: HR futures continue to grind higher. While HR demand seems to be holding steady we are starting to see […]
Record auto sales may be less about a stronger economy and more about auto lending practices, according to recent data by Fitch Ratings. Auto loans given to borrowers with lower credit scores, called subprime loans, have resulted in an alarming rate of auto loan defaults. Seriously delinquent subprime car loans rose above five percent in […]
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for March rose sharply to the first positive reading in seven months. The index gained 15.2 points to register 12.4. The index for new orders jumped 21 points to 15.7, returning to growth status, while shipments climbed 20 points. Both unfilled orders and deliver times improved in March, […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey recorded its first positive reading since July of 2015. The March general business conditions index rose 17 points to 0.6 bolstered by increases in new orders and shipments. New orders jumped 21 points to 9.6 after several months of decline. Shipments surged 25 points to register 13.9 Survey results suggest […]
Steel Market Update received a number of comments regarding our “Dirty Little Secret” article published last week. The first comment comes from Lawrence Cox of McCanch Performance Consulting and formerly with National Steel. Mr. Cox was the individual who was carrying on a debate with Dan DiMicco on LinkedIn. He told SMU: “Nearly every slab […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2007 through January 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 242,000 jobs were added in February, up from 172,000 in January, December and January were revised up by a total of 30,000. More detail on this report is included at the end of this piece. The three month moving […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, David Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has now got their date base for the GDP of each state up and running and last week published data from Q1 2005 through Q3 2015. Looking ahead the data will be published quarterly and is reported in chained 2009 dollars seasonally adjusted. We at SMU plan to analyze […]
In Sunday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we warned our readers that something was happening in China that could impact US steel prices. We have been working on this project ever since and this is what we have learned from multiple sources around the world: Iron ore and steel prices are surging in China. […]
Steel prices have surged in the Chinese domestic market over the past few days. Steel Market Update reported in our Final Thoughts on Sunday evening that something was up and buyers needed to be aware of what is going on around them – both here in North America as well as around the world. Volatility […]
World Steel Exchange Marketing (WSEM) announced that the US Shredded Steel Scrap TSI Index will begin futures trading on the Nasdaq Commodities Exchange (Stockholm) as of March 29, 2016. The 20-gross-ton USA Midwest shredded steel contract will be listed, and quoted, for the current month and each of the next 11 months. The contract will […]
More than 3,000 workers at ArcelorMittal steel mill Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacan, Mexico went on what has been classified as an illegal strike on March 4 to protest job cuts and idled operations. Workers marched in a protest rally and placed red and black flags at the doors of the steel company to announce the […]
The Renco Group will retake two RG Steel pension funds back from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., ending a three year lawsuit. The deal is only the second time in PBGC’s history that a terminated pension plan was restored to an employer. The PBGC is an entity that insures multi-employer pension plans and protects the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, David Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
Factory orders for manufactured goods grew 1.6 percent in January, following a 2.9 percent decrease in December and showing the largest increase since June. Durable goods orders rose 4.7 percent led by transportation equipment orders that were up 11.4 percent in January. Nondurable goods dropped 1.4 percent to $226.8 billion. Factory orders came in below […]
This evening the U.S. Department of Commerce released their Preliminary Determinations on cold rolled from Brazil, China, India, Japan, Korea, Russia and the United Kingdom. Each country was found to be exporting cold rolled into the United States at less than fair value. However, the degree of the penalties ranged from a low of 2.17 […]