I heard from one of my trading contacts who lives inside of China over the weekend. He had attended an economic lecture, the topic of which has been banned in China. China’s economy is a mess. I will have more on the Chinese economy and what it might mean for North America in the coming […]
Mill lead times turned the corner on the new year little changed from mid-December. At less than four weeks for hot rolled and around six weeks for cold rolled and coated products, lead times for spot orders of most products are as short as they have been in over a year. While still in high […]
Steel Market Update’s first canvass of the new year shows a subtle shift in the price dynamic between mills and steel buyers. No doubt, buyers still have a lot of leverage and most mills are usually willing to talk price to secure the order. But SMU’s findings show a slight tightening in negotiations. In the […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index began the year with another slight dip in optimism, as measured by both the Current Sentiment and the Future Sentiment three-month moving averages. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), […]
It is so rare that I get to spend two weeks in the office, and I think I am going to be here for another week or so. At the end of the month, I will be in Mississippi to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops. The Starkville workshop is close to being sold […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, fell 4.9 percent in December to an index reading of 151.9. The decline was due to a 7.6 percent drop in the commercial component of the index, while the institutional component fell only 0.7 percent. Nonresidential planning made […]
Employment gains in manufacturing and construction were strong in December, as 301,000 jobs were created in the private sector and 11,000 in government, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees […]
I mentioned this in my pricing article earlier in this newsletter, but I think it bears repeating. When I was with Winner Steel (now called NLMK Sharon Coatings) we brought up two new coating lines. As each line came onstream it was imperative to get orders, so the line would run. One way to get […]
With finished steel prices continuing their second-half decline through the end of 2018, the market is holding its collective breath to see if the mills announce a price hike this month. Many believe they will try to raise prices, but most are doubtful they will succeed. Following is what industry sources told SMU this week: […]
U.S. auto sales topped the 17 million mark for the fourth year in a row. Total sales for the year are estimated at 17.2 million to 17.3 million vehicles. “New-vehicle sales were surprisingly strong in 2018 despite late cycle headwinds from higher interest rates and more nearly-new competition in the used market,” said Jonathan Smoke, […]
Total heating and cooling equipment shipments in November rose 2.4 percent compared to one year ago, according to data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) on Friday. Aside from the 5.1 percent slip in September, total monthly equipment shipments on a year-over-year basis had increased every month since November 2016. Residential and […]
When on calls with steel service center and manufacturing executives, one of the questions that always comes up is my view on the economy. I am not an economist and I defer to CRU and to economists like Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics (Alan speaks at the SMU Steel Summit Conference). I know Dr. Beaulieu’s […]
The New Year has started, the pace is a little slow for some, others have told me that their order books got a kick start yesterday. I have to imagine the differences are based on geography and product. This afternoon I had an interesting conversation with the head of commercial for a domestic steel mill. […]
Welcome to 2019! As we begin the New Year, I want to welcome everyone back to their offices or plants. I am looking forward to another interesting year as we continue to deal with the effects of Steel 232, anti-dumping and countervailing duties, threats of Section 232 for automotive and Section 301 on finished goods […]
Service centers are perilously close to capitulation as the percentage of respondents reporting service centers as lowering spot prices continues to increase. Manufacturing companies are telling Steel Market Update that they are receiving lower and lower spot pricing from their service center suppliers. In our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted this past […]
Tomorrow night is Christmas Eve and so I am not going to spend a lot of time talking about the steel industry. My words tonight are aimed at the heart as I wish each of you a wonderful holiday and a happy, healthy New Year. From all of us here at Steel Market Update. John […]
So, we have our service center inventories at 2.5 months of supply, down slightly from the 2.6 months we got from our distributor data suppliers the previous month. This is not from our survey; we decided to put that data aside as it was suspect – it had both buyers and sellers contributing to the […]
Continual controversy over trade and tariffs, volatile steel prices and unrest on Wall Street have clearly left many in the industry anxious and pessimistic about the year to come. Only about 20 percent of the steel executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect 2019 to be a solid growth year […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index ended the year on a “down” note as our Current Sentiment Index, as measured this week as a single data point, was the lowest reading we have seen over the past two years. When viewed as a three-month-moving average, which helps smooth out the data and provide a clearer […]
Mill lead times suggest that demand for flat rolled steel products continues to bounce along the bottom as the year comes to a close, with no clear direction yet for the first quarter. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the […]
With steel prices continuing to decline, steel buyers remain in a strong negotiating position. Twice each month Steel Market Update canvasses the flat rolled and plate steel markets to gauge whether the steel mills are willing to work with their steel buying customers and negotiate steel pricing for orders placed this week. At least nine […]
Rising housing affordability issues continue to hinder single-family construction even as total housing starts increased in November, reports the National Association of Home Builders. According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department, overall housing starts rose 3.2 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual […]
Through October 2018, of the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into the U.S., only 2.8 percent was strip, while 44.3 percent of the CR sheet imports were >1 to 3mm thick and 49.8 percent was full hard. Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports broken down into district of entry […]
Net job creation in November totaled 155,000 positions. This was a correction from the very strong result in October, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data. Table 1 breaks total U.S. employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of […]
This report examines the import share of sheet, plate, long and tubular products and 16 subcategories through October. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through October and in 12 months through October for the four product groups and the 16 subcategories. Supply to the market is the total of domestic […]
We are quickly sliding toward the Christmas Holiday and the New Year. I guess this means I will need to do some shopping (and shipping) over the next 24 hours or lose my good standing as a father… Over the next couple of publications, we will write about this year through the rear-view mirror. 2018 […]
It seems like forever since I have been in the office for a full week. Well, this week is one of the rare occasions. A little home time as we run up to the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. A note about our publication schedule as we will be taking some time off between Christmas […]
JSW Ohio tried to run their EAF and caster today, but found they needed a couple of small fixes. The goal is now to melt their first heat and cast their first slab tomorrow (Friday). We continue to watch this closely as there will be an impact on the market once the mill has been […]
A couple of comments regarding possible price increase announcements as we go into first-quarter 2019 made today as I canvassed the flat rolled and plate steel markets pricing. “Mills appear to be much more sanguine on prices than I’ve seen in a while. I’m hearing them say that once all of the mills are done […]
Flat rolled steel service centers who responded to last week’s SMU flat rolled and plate steel market trends questionnaire are reporting in increasing numbers their service center as lowering spot prices to their customers. One month ago (early November) only 32 percent of the flat rolled distributors were reporting lower spot pricing to their customers. […]