Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 22, 2019
It has been an interesting last four weeks with now three price increase announcements having been made by most of the steel mills. With this latest announcement, I am hearing from buyers the mills are pushing to get orders in “before the increases take effect.” A way of pushing the increases off for a few days (probably until next week).
How much of the $120 per ton will “stick” will depend on how much demand there is out there. I was speaking to the president of a service center this afternoon who mentioned comments made by John Ferriola during the Nucor earnings conference call. He said the Nucor CEO put manufacturing demand as being up by 4 percent. He thought that was the real gauge to the strength of the economy. Service centers, he explained, are managing inventory levels – not demand.
Speaking of inventory levels, don’t forget Steel Market Update will be rolling out our Service Center Inventories Indices at the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. Then, beginning in September, we plan on sharing a portion of the data with our Premium level members. I, along with members of the CRU team, will be discussing this during the opening session at 1 PM on Monday, Aug. 26.
If you have not yet registered to attend this year’s conference, you can rectify that oversight by going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit where you will find details about the conference and registration links. If you are having any issues, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or send an email to Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com (that email address is monitored by the events team in London and they will get back with you as promptly as possible).
I had a long conference call this morning with the events team in London regarding the ongoing arrangements being made for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. I think those attending this year’s event will be very pleased with the cosmetic changes, more exposure for sponsors and exhibitors, networking opportunities and the availability to information from Steel Market Update and the CRU Group.
Attendees to this year’s conference will receive access to the CRU Steel Monitor; those who are not SMU members will receive free trials to our newsletter prior to the conference. We have arranged for sponsored notebooks to be given to each attendee so you can keep hand-written notes. Through one of our sponsors (Pacesetter), there will be free internet service for all attendees in the convention center.
When you walk through the doors of the Georgia International Convention Center, you will immediately notice how much more professional the conference is being run. With the inclusion of our parent company and their events team, we finally have the experience needed to cover all of the stations and to expand the overall conference experience without it becoming impersonal.
The Steel Market Update Events App has been released to paid registered attendees, sponsors and the exhibitors. Those registered will be able to search by name or by company to see who is registered for this year’s event. The App only works for those who are registered (and paid). If you believe you are registered but are unable to utilize our App, please contact Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
There are only a few rooms left at the Atlanta Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel at our special room block rate. We will be running a shuttle from that hotel to the convention center during the conference (it is about 1-2 miles away).
Registration is still open and there are plenty of seats available for the next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop in Cincinnati, Ohio. We will tour the Nucor Gallatin steel mill in Ghent, Ky., as part of the workshop. For more details, go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
If your company subscription is coming due for renewal, please reach out to Paige Mayhair to discuss renewal options – especially upgrading to Premium or to one of our Regional or Global memberships, which allow you to place as many of your employees on the subscription as you would like. You can reach Paige at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)
Final thoughts
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Final thoughts
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
Final thoughts
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
Final thoughts
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]