The rate of growth in U.S. home prices continues to slow. The March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index gained 3.7 percent year-over-year in March, down from 3.9 percent in February and the lowest annual gain since September 2012. The index has been on a 12-month downward trajectory, falling from a 6.5 percent annual […]
Editor’s note: John Packard is on vacation. It appears many steel buyers are holding off on purchases while they wait to see if imports resume from Canada, Mexico and Turkey now that President Trump has reversed himself on the Section 232 tariffs. “Lead times are stagnating/shortening and the mills are in full negotiation mode,” said […]
Industry sentiment has seen a gradual slide since registering +78 in January 2018 and the trend is continuing, if not accelerating. Declining steel prices and disappointing demand in some sectors appears to be weighing on the attitudes of many industry executives. Generally speaking, SMU’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index reflects an industry that is still fairly […]
Now that the U.S. borders are open to tariff-free steel from Canada and Mexico, and lower-tariff steel from Turkey, can the market expect a flood of imports in the coming weeks and months? And what will that mean for steel prices? Last week, the Trump administration removed the 25 percent tariff on steel imports from […]
Average lead times for spot orders of hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels continue to shorten as mill production, at more than 80 percent capacity, appears to be outpacing demand. Hot rolled lead times are now approaching three and a half weeks, cold rolled less than six weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume slightly above six […]
Steel Market Update data on negotiations and pricing corroborate the same trend. More than eight out of 10 flat rolled steel buyers responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire this week reported that the mills are willing to talk price to win their business. Thus, it’s no surprise that steel prices continue to move lower. About […]
Sales of new homes in April slid 6.9 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to the latest data released by the Department of Commerce. Sales were 7.0 percent higher than the April 2018 estimate of 629,000. The decline in sales followed a robust 723,000 sales pace in March and […]
I am flying back to Florida after completing my second speaking engagement this week. I think I’ve logged 10,000 miles over the past few weeks flying to Atlanta (twice), Chicago, Iowa, Minnesota after having previously flown to Monterrey, Mexico, and Los Angeles. I am looking forward to not going anywhere for a week (I am […]
Construction employment continues to increase in April, but the Associated General Contractors of America say that demand would support the hiring of more workers if they were available. AGC urges the government to enact immigration reform that would boost the supply of qualified workers. “Contractors face an ever-increasing challenge to find enough qualified workers to […]
Existing-home sales declined slightly from March to April, slipping 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million. Sales were down 4.4 percent from April 2018, said the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said he is not overly concerned about the dip in sales and expects moderate growth very […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, SMU has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled, then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through March 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports […]
I am in Atlanta speaking at a supplier conference for an OEM both today and again on Thursday. As expected, the questions were about Mexico and Canada and where prices go from here. There were also questions about our index versus the CRU index (different methodologies). I am looking forward to revising and doing it […]
So, I don’t even need to be in the office to know what question(s) I am going to be asked all this week. Now that President Trump has removed the Section 232 tariffs from Canada and Mexico (without a quota, but instead a promise of no surge), everyone wants to know how this will affect […]
Housing starts jumped 5.7 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235,000, said the Department of Commerce in its latest report. Single-family starts led the way with a 6.2 percent increase, while homes of five units or more increased 2.3 percent. Starts soared by 84.6 percent in the Northeast and 42 percent […]
I have moved from our Steel 101 workshop in Iowa to Minnesota where I met with a large flat rolled service center this afternoon. The service centers are consistently reporting to SMU that the domestic steel mills are just plain producing too much steel. With scrap down and the marginal cost to produce a hot […]
Good afternoon/evening from Davenport, Iowa. Davenport is where the Mississippi River flooded the downtown area a couple of weeks ago. Water levels are down four feet from their highest point, and the flood waters reached the parking lot of our hotel before receding back across the railroad tracks. The river is still in flood stage […]
There is no more debate, service centers are moving off inventories at deeper discounts to their end customers than they did just a few weeks ago. The lower spot prices to service center customers were captured during the Steel Market Update flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis conducted this past week. As you […]
More than 40 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week said they are confused by the current steel market and price direction. Judging by their comments, it’s unclear to many why steel prices are declining at a time when the economy is so strong, imports are down and the […]
Data in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to trend more pessimistic with Current Sentiment hitting its lowest reading in two and a half years. Industry executives appear less optimistic in light of declining steel prices, uncertain demand and contentious negotiations with U.S. trading partners. The goal of the index is to measure […]
Steel Market Update is dedicated to assist the greater steel community to attract and maintain young people to the industry. The SMU NexGen Leadership Award, which is in partnership with the Steel Manufacturers Association, is but one step in the process that was begun many years ago. Our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & […]
With steel prices moving down or sideways and demand softening in some markets, it’s no surprise that most mills are willing to talk price to win business in the current environment. Eight out of 10 of the flat rolled steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week report that prices are in play […]
Average lead times for spot orders of steel have shortened in the past month, suggesting that the mills are not as booked as they would like to be at this time of year. Hot rolled lead times now average less than four weeks, cold rolled less than six weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume slightly above […]
I am in Chicago having spoken to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch gathering last night, and I will be attending the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner this evening. The conversations I am having here in Chicago are similar to what we have been reporting for some time now. Steel buyers are concerned and frustrated […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, slipped 0.5 percent in April to a reading of 144.3. The Index has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. April’s slide was due to the commercial component falling 1.0 percent, while the […]
Private construction contracted in three months through March, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, is booming, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Commerce Department data. The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for March was released on May 1. Through March, total construction has negative momentum. Private construction contracted […]
Job creation in manufacturing has slowed dramatically in the last three months, but construction employment is still expanding rapidly. In April, 236,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government added 27,000. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing […]
I got a call earlier today asking about a steel publication changing the direction of some of their flat rolled pricing. I responded that I don’t read the other trade publications, and I don’t follow their indices. I do not want to be influenced as I go through the always difficult, and sometimes tedious, process […]
President Trump has announced that he intends to increase the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese finished goods to the full 25 percent by the end of this week (current rate on first batch is 10 percent). He also intends to increase the number of products to be hit. His statement was the Chinese were dragging […]
U.S. auto sales slipped 2.3 percent in April for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.41 million, according to data by AutoWeek. The April rate was well below the sales rate of 17.42 million in March and 17.25 million in April 2018. Higher vehicle prices and difficulty securing financing may be keeping consumers from dealer […]
The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) said that federal officials can help ensure more metro areas have enough trained workers to carry out needed construction by providing a way for contractors to bring qualified guest workers into the country, coupled with strict safeguards for American jobs and reduced incentives for individuals to enter the […]