Some quick final thoughts this evening – I will be traveling tomorrow (Monday) to Chicago to attend FABTECH and to teach a mini-version of our Steel 101 workshop (they call it Steel 101: Mill to Fabricator) on Tuesday afternoon. John Eckstein and I will be in Room 502B in McCormick Place, and the workshop is […]
The real news coming out of this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis is the jump in the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index when looking at the index as a single data point, as opposed to a three-month moving average, which is our preference. Measured as a single data point, the average among those […]
After price increase announcements, it is important to follow steel mill lead times (and other keys) as a way of seeing if the increases are being seriously considered by steel buyers. The farther and faster lead times move out, the more support for the price increases announced by the domestic steel mills. Steel Market Update […]
According to the buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel, the domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate spot steel prices. The percentages of those reporting the mills as willing to negotiate has shrunk, but continues to be well above 50 percent. This is a bit of a surprise considering the price announcements made in […]
Hurricane recovery, fleet sales and rental car companies contributed to a strong month for U.S. auto sales. Pickup trucks and SUVs continue to be snapped up by consumers. “We did see continued hurricane replacement at the beginning of the month,” Michelle Krebs, an analyst at car-shopping website Autotrader, told Bloomberg. “The economic factors are also […]
Another reminder that mill metallurgist and Steel 101 instructor John Eckstein and I will be in Chicago next week for FABTECH 2017. We will be conducting a mini-version of our Steel 101 workshop during the expo. Our workshop will be held in the McCormick Place Convention Center in room 502 B on Tuesday, Nov. 7, […]
Steel market indicators look good in the October data, but the trends took a turn for the worse. In the data released in October, our view of the present situation is that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance are within the band of historically normal. […]
Home prices rose 6.1 percent in August for an all-time year-over-year gain in the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The 20-city composite posted a 5.9 percent jump from August 2016. “Home price increases appear to be unstoppable,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones […]
We began sending out our sponsorship package to last year’s sponsors and will send it out to previous years sponsors as well as those who have expressed an interest in becoming a sponsor or exhibitor. We have a limited number of sponsors and already have commitments from Pacesetter, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Magic Coil […]
As we approach the end of October, SMU wanted to update our readers on the flat rolled inventory information we have been collecting from the steel service centers in the United States. At the end of July, we began gathering the number of months of supply being held at a select number of service centers. […]
We did a quick check of lead times at a number of domestic steel mills on Friday of this past week. This is what we learned: Steel Dynamics Industries (SDI) – Butler, Ind. HR – closed for November production Pickled – closed for November production CR – closed for November production HRG – 11/20 (4 […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) will begin our next flat rolled steel market trends survey at 8 AM ET tomorrow (Monday). If you receive an invitation, please take a few moments to click on the button in the message and fill out our questionnaire. Most people are able to get through the process in less than […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis on the flat rolled steel market. Our focus is on pricing and price direction, demand, inventory management, international steel, buyers’ sentiment, service center spot price direction, mill lead times and negotiations, and more. We have been conducting our market analysis going back to late 2008. The […]
New home sales in September jumped 18.9 percent from last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau. September sales were 17 percent higher than a year ago. The median sales price was $319,700 and the average sales price $385,200. Inventory […]
We are three months away from our Mobile, Ala., Steel 101 workshop and we are sold out. Having said that, I would recommend that if you want to attend, add your name to our wait-list. You can do that on our website by clicking on the registration link; after you are advised that the workshop […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted one of our flat rolled steel market trends analyses, sending invitations to 655 executives associated with the manufacturing, steel distribution, steel mills, trading companies and toll processor segments of the industry. The majority of respondents completed the questionnaire prior to the ArcelorMittal USA price increase announcement. One of […]
The volume of light vehicle assemblies in the U.S. and Canada is declining at more than 15 percent per year as Mexico’s volume is increasing by 7.7 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of auto production in the NAFTA region. U.S. Vehicle Sales: U.S. new-vehicle sales surged in September to 18.6 million […]
The Mario Briccetti article entitled: “Steel Buyers Basics: Kobe Steel Problems and How to Avoid Them” prompted a number of comments. The comments all came from other Steel 101 instructors who spent their careers working for steel mills either in sales or in quality/metallurgical positions. We should have an interesting discussion between our instructors at […]
SMU Note–The Kobe Steel scandal regarding falsifying test certifications has had a ripple effect. Steel Market Update asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire if the Kobe scandal is raising some concerns that other mills may cut corners with testing and falsify documentation. Twenty-nine percent of our respondents had concerns. From […]
Existing home sales picked up slightly in September following three months of declines, said the National Association of Realtors. However, ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity and caused sales to fall back on an annual basis, said the association. Total transactions rose 0.7 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate […]
We have an article in tonight’s newsletter from Mario Briccetti that I want to make sure is not misconstrued as a criticism of the domestic steel mills. The Kobe Steel violation of trust by certifying test results for tests that were not conducted has created some unease here in the United States. It is Steel […]
On Tuesday of this week, ArcelorMittal USA announced new “minimum” base pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. On Wednesday, Nucor and North Star BlueScope followed with increase announcements of their own of $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt). This morning (Thursday), NLMK USA emailed a letter to their customers advising of their intention to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index market cycle appears to have bottomed as buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel were slightly more optimistic than what we collected at the beginning of the month. We measured the single data point for those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this […]
Flat rolled steel lead times continue to shorten up, a trend under way since early August, according to the service centers and manufacturers who responded to Steel Market Update’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this week. On average, lead times have dipped to nearly three weeks for hot rolled, slightly less than six weeks […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began collecting data for our mid-October flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We invited over 600 companies to participate in our questionnaire. The vast majority of the respondents are either service centers or manufacturing companies. Based on the data collected we found that prior to any of […]
Does the Kobe Steel scandal raise the question that other steel mills, including those in the United States, might cut corners with testing and falsifying documentation? About 70 percent of buyers and sellers of steel responding to Steel Market Update’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this week say no, they remain confident about the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has a proprietary model that analyzes the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipment and inventory data, from which we calculate whether distributor inventories are in Excess/Balance/Deficit. We ended the month of August with steel service center inventories as essentially balanced (-26,000 tons). The month of September saw a […]
The recent hurricanes dealt a blow to housing starts and authorizations in September, with construction data showing declines in the South. “We are seeing the hurricanes take a toll on single-family production, but builder confidence is strong and production should bounce back as the recovery process gets under way,” said Granger MacDonald, chairman of the […]
SMU published an article in Tuesday evening’s issue about the comments made by General John Adams on national security and the need for steel. The title of the article was “General Goes Nuclear in Support of Section 232.” We received a number of comments from that article wanting to know if we had fact-checked what […]
As the afternoon turned into evening, I began hearing rumors that a flat rolled price increase would be announced “soon.” I heard from a service center who was texting us from his car (a definite no-no) telling SMU that a yet to be named (by us) mill was moving prices. We are still waiting for […]