Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 9, 2018
Today is Feb. 11 and it has been one month since Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross sent his recommendation regarding Section 232 to the office of President Trump. Since then, there has been much speculation but nothing of substance as the industry waits for the president to remove the uncertainty.
Over the past week, I have been reaching out to steel traders to see what their thoughts are regarding Section 232 and other subjects. One trader told me, “It is impossible to run a business on no facts at all… We are not stopping but we are trading with our eyes wide open.” This trader told us that they have put language in their contracts that protects them should the government impose new duties. “You can go broke by doing nothing.”
So, as of Feb. 11, there are 59 days left before a decision must be made.
Speaking of days left – as of today there are 44 days left before our next Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Merrillville, Ind., just outside of Chicago. We have a few spots left, and you can get more information on our website.
There are also 196 days before the beginning of our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference. Registration is available on our website.
I will be in my office all week this week. Next week, I will be at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference. I do recommend the conference, which this year will have a few of our past Steel Summit speakers (and at least one current one) presenting. I look forward to seeing you there.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.
Final thoughts
There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.
Final thoughts
Washington loomed large in our surveys this week. Two things actually: the upcoming presidential election and the trade case against imported coated products from 10 nations.
Final thoughts
Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.
Final thoughts
SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: