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    Analysis

    February 14, 2018

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    It appears that the market is being set for the next round of flat rolled price increases. With benchmark hot rolled averaging $745 per ton, which is essentially at the levels suggested by ArcelorMittal USA in their last announcement, then there is nothing to stop another increase. I heard from a buyer earlier this week that Nucor was already quoting $38.50/cwt ($770 per ton) and an end user told me yesterday that their prices were raised $40 per ton this week. My gut tells me to expect something like $40 to $60 per ton with this next announcement. AMUSA may come out with an $800 HRC “minimum” base, since they have essentially no spot to sell anyway. We should see something soon.

    Imagine where prices will go should President Trump issue some form of duties/tax/quota on foreign steel. It sounds like he wants to charge an eye for an eye; if the exporting country has a 10 percent duty on imported steel into their country, then the U.S. would charge the same duty. I don’t know how this would work with AD/CVD penalties already in place. Like the price increase announcements, we will soon know since we are within the 60-day window for President Trump to make a decision. If your company is for or against the idea, now is the time to let your congressman or the president know what you believe should/should not happen.

    John Packard

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