My opinion is that we will need to watch foreign hot rolled offers this week. There are a couple of countries (including Korea) that were scheduled to come out with new HR pricing this week. Will the final determination ruling by the US Department of Commerce have any impact on prices? We also will need […]
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey, as steel prices flatten out and lead times begin to come back in, flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are slightly less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing market environment as well as 3 to […]
Earlier this week we began our early August flat rolled steel market trends analysis. The process began with invitations going out to approximately 570 steel executives in the manufacturing, service center/wholesaler, trading company, steel mill and toll processing communities. The invitations are purposely heavily weighted toward manufacturing and service center/wholesalers as those two segments purchase […]
The following information was collected from our flat rolled steel market trends survey which we have been conducting since Monday of this week. Much of the collection information is similar to the Lead Times article above as this question is posed to manufacturing companies and distributors. What we are trying to discover is if there […]
June data for Construction Put in Place (CPIP) was released by the Department of Commerce on Monday August 1st. In June total construction slowed for the third consecutive month on a 3MMA (three month moving average) basis. All four sectors had negative momentum. These are non-residential buildings, residential buildings, infra-structure and other, which is a […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the third consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce will announce their final determination on the hot rolled antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) trade suits against Brazil, Australia, Turkey, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. We will publish an article on our website as soon as we get the results which normally come […]
Auto sale volume for July was mixed, with the largest manufacturers slipping in volume year-over-year and most of the smaller ones gaining by single digit percent but still below analyst estimates. FCA US picked up just 0.3 percent over July 2015, while GM sales dipped 1.9 percent, Ford dropped 3 percent, and Toyota sales decreased […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. It is important to understand the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. The total […]
Scrap trading has been slow to develop in all but the Detroit area mills. The domestic steel mills are trying to reduce the spread between shredded scrap and prime grades of scrap (busheling and bundles) which in some cases has expanded to $70 per gross ton. Scrap guru Michael Marley reported this afternoon that the […]
A note to those of you who are registered for our 6th Steel Summit Conference but have yet to make room reservations. The room block at the Marriott Gateway Hotel (our host hotel) is sold out. The hotel may have a few rooms left but they will most likely be at the full rack rate. […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the second week in a row, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
I have been receiving a large number of calls asking my opinion about steel prices and specifically can steel prices remain at the current levels for an extended period of time. The financial community is convinced that the numbers will come down over the next month to two months and that we will see mid […]
Light vehicle (LV) sales in June were 16.7 million units, down from 17.4 million in May and from 17.0 million in June last year. All sales numbers in this analysis are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Figure 1 shows the auto and light truck components since January 2004. In June auto sales were 6.8 […]
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes jumped 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 from a revised May total of 572,000, said the Commerce Department on Tuesday. The increase exceeded analyst expectations for a rate of 560,000. Sales for the first half of 2016 were 10.1 percent higher than the same period […]
Home prices continued to rise in May but at a slower pace. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for May shows the 20-city Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 5.2 percent in April, down from 5.4 percent in April. “Home prices continue to appreciate across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and […]
What we like to hear for our member companies: One of the largest service centers in the U.S. told us earlier this week after registering for our Steel Summit Conference, “Our guys tell me your conference is very good, I’m looking forward to attending. Also, several mills tell me that your conference is turning into […]
We pointed out a couple of weeks back that lead times have been slowly shrinking but are still longer than year ago levels. Lead times refer to the amount of time it takes to get an order placed today produced at one of the domestic steel mills. The steel mill lead times we are discussing […]
As lead times begin to come back in (shorten), we are seeing an increase in the percentage of our flat rolled steel survey respondents who are reporting the steel mills as willing to negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product. It has the shortest lead time and we have heard from […]
I don’t know if I have ever seen a market quite like the one we are living through right now. Supply is being constrained through the use of the trade suits coupled with US Steel taking down two blast furnaces at Granite City and AK Steel taking down their lone blast furnace at Ashland. There […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]
The Architecture Billings Index remained positive in June but slipped to 52.6 to 53.1, according to the latest survey by the American institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index dropped to 58.6 from 60.1 the previous month. Any reading above 50 indicates a growth in design services. “Demand for residential projects has surged this […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative this week, following a 28 week positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a percentage. A positive […]
The spread between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated steels continues to be at dangerous (my opinion) levels. The U.S. steel industry has been systematically “building a dam” (Lewis Leibowitz words) around this country in order to prevent what they call unfairly subsidized and unfairly traded plate, hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The […]
Housing starts rose 4.8 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,189,000, exceeding analyst expectations for the month. On a year-over-year basis, starts were 2.0 percent lower than the rate of 1,334,000 in June 2015. May’s estimate was revised downward to 1.14 million unit rate from the previously reported 1.16 million units. […]
I want to take a moment to thank my Steel Market Update team that has been working almost 24 hours a day in order to stay on top of the Steel Summit Conference for this year. I am not positive but, I think we will be the second largest steel conference in the U.S. by […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through May 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for May 2016 decreased 13.6 percent […]
We knew it would happen and it has, we learned late on Friday that our room block has been sold out. We are trying to see if there is anything we can do to expand the block and we will be working on that over the next couple of days. However, there is another option […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 28th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
We released our SMU Events App on Tuesday morning. On Wednesday I received a text from one of our registered attendees, “Hey, your app is pretty good John. Is there a quantity discount on additional sign ups?” First, thank you for the vote of confidence. I thought our App went over pretty well last year […]