Fresh off another rate hike from the Fed, US macro data came in mixed during the month of March. The final update for GDP in Q4 2022 showed 2.6% growth, which was down slightly month over month and below expectations. Consumer spending has also been revised down consistently over each update on the Q4 figures. […]
The macro environment in the US has proven to be extremely volatile and continues to change on a month-by-month and sometimes even week-by-week basis. Last year ended with worries about an incoming recession as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to slow the economy. As 2023 opened and year-end economic data trickled in, the figures were […]
Despite the economic concerns that lowered consumer sentiment towards the end of 2022, aluminum products demand has held up throughout the first three months of the year. A slowdown from the frenetic post-pandemic pace is apparent. Overall, though, both rollers and extruders comment that conditions are better than expected. The new order index as released […]
There is still a debate on whether the US will enter into a recession during 2023. The beginning of the year has been slower, but overall end-use demand has been holding up relatively well. The mid-part of the year, Q2-Q3, is where most forecasts peg a downturn. Therefore, perhaps the largest challenges are still looming. […]
Now entering the second month of the year, prices are still a top-of-mind conversation. After its run-up to over $2,600/tonne, the London Metal Exchange calmed, and volatility dropped. This signals that, for now, it has hit resistance. The Midwest premium has followed a similar trend. After peaking just over $0.30/lb, it has started to come […]
The big story of the new year continues to be the run-up of the regional Midwest premium (MWP). As January comes to an end, the MWP sits just over $0.30/lb, or almost 50% higher than December’s price. A return of market activity in general has pushed the premium back up closer to replacement cost levels. […]
The Midwest premium (MWP), calm at year end, started the new year off with a bang, and has jumped up $0.03-.04 in the first two weeks of January. Movement is likely based on the market regulating back up to the full replacement cost level (freight, inventory carry cost, insurance) as trading activity picks back up. […]
Starting after the recovery of the financial system from the 2008 global financial crisis, and continuing until Covid-19 hit, the economy was remarkably stable and consistent. Demand for aluminum in general grew at a steady pace, with some end-use segments outperforming historical averages. For financial markets, the running joke became “stock prices go up.” Since 2020, […]
With 2022 now in the past, the door has closed on one of the most volatile years for the aluminum industry. Supply chain disruptions as a residual fallout from Covid-19 and elevated levels of geopolitical risk raised uncertainty throughout the value chain. The shift in import trends has also been a major topic and is […]
Economic conditions are still iffy at best. Housing data continues to suffer with new home sales plunging and inventory reaching the highest it has been since 2009. The Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indexes both plunged in July as well. The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing skill availability index, which indicates the demand for skilled labor […]
Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group As costs, premiums, and prices all remain high, market participants across all sectors are all looking for the edge of the cliff. The war, Covid 19, and inflation are all part of the daily conversation. Supply disruptions and demand destruction are very real worries for all those involved. In what could […]
Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group The US Midwest premium on aluminum P1020 has seen consistent upward movement since the recovery from the pandemic started. Last week, it touched $0.40 per pound, a level once heavily fought. The fundamentals of the market indicated room for further upward moves, yet it is pausing here. Markets are getting […]