Contributor: Matthew Abrams

The LME aluminum three-month price was broadly stable again on the morning of Sept. 8 and was last seen trading at $2,180 per tonne.

The LME aluminum 3-month price is unchanged on the morning of August 18 and was last seen trading at $2,144 /t. A rally to an intraday high of $2,186 /t on the 17th proved again to be short-lived as almost all gains were erased by the close. This shows how strong the downward trend that […]

US Midwest premium has continued to trend lower. Slack end-use demand is the main driver as the CME backwardation holds for dates further out in 2023. Lower freight and weak LME prices lower the replacement costs of aluminum and thus lower the floor for the premium.

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of […]

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of the policy resulting in its continuation, it is clear that it has had a positive impact on parts of the industry. However, there are also a handful of knock-on effects that have become apparent.

With demand trending lower throughout out the first half of 2023, the aluminum industry is searching for something to be optimistic about. Recent economic news is leaning positive, with inflation slowing across multiple measures including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and manufacturing final goods’ pricing. Personal consumption expenditure has slowed from its peak but sustained […]

The United States and Indian governments have agreed to terminate six disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Benefits from the settlement include opening the US to more shipments of steel and aluminum made in India, according to New Delhi. “As a part of the agreement, the US has agreed to grant market access to […]

The US Federal Reserve has taken some pressure out of the market by announcing a pause in interest rate hikes, leaving rates at 5% to 5.25% after more than a year of consecutive rate increases. The decision on Wednesday came a day after official figures showed US inflation was 4% – the lowest pace of […]

The LME aluminum three-month price continued to make steady gains on the morning of June 2 and was seen trading at $2,308/t. The move marks the successful test of the key $2,200/t support earlier last week. SHFE aluminum prices also traded higher on that day. The cash price settled at RMB18,585/t and last traded at RMB18,665/t, […]

 Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]

Fresh off another rate hike from the Fed, US macro data came in mixed during the month of March. The final update for GDP in Q4 2022 showed 2.6% growth, which was down slightly month over month and below expectations. Consumer spending has also been revised down consistently over each update on the Q4 figures. […]

The macro environment in the US has proven to be extremely volatile and continues to change on a month-by-month and sometimes even week-by-week basis. Last year ended with worries about an incoming recession as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to slow the economy. As 2023 opened and year-end economic data trickled in, the figures were […]

Despite the economic concerns that lowered consumer sentiment towards the end of 2022, aluminum products demand has held up throughout the first three months of the year. A slowdown from the frenetic post-pandemic pace is apparent. Overall, though, both rollers and extruders comment that conditions are better than expected. The new order index as released […]

There is still a debate on whether the US will enter into a recession during 2023. The beginning of the year has been slower, but overall end-use demand has been holding up relatively well. The mid-part of the year, Q2-Q3, is where most forecasts peg a downturn. Therefore, perhaps the largest challenges are still looming. […]

Now entering the second month of the year, prices are still a top-of-mind conversation. After its run-up to over $2,600/tonne, the London Metal Exchange calmed, and volatility dropped. This signals that, for now, it has hit resistance. The Midwest premium has followed a similar trend. After peaking just over $0.30/lb, it has started to come […]

The big story of the new year continues to be the run-up of  the regional Midwest premium (MWP). As January comes to  an end, the MWP sits just over $0.30/lb, or almost 50% higher than December’s price. A return of market activity in general has pushed the premium back up closer to replacement cost levels. […]

The Midwest premium (MWP), calm at year end, started the new year off with a bang, and has jumped up $0.03-.04 in the first two weeks of January. Movement is likely based on the market regulating back up to the full replacement cost level (freight, inventory carry cost, insurance) as trading activity picks back up. […]

Starting after the recovery of the financial system from the 2008 global financial crisis, and continuing until Covid-19 hit, the economy was remarkably stable and consistent. Demand for aluminum in general grew at a steady pace, with some end-use segments outperforming historical averages. For financial markets, the running joke became “stock prices go up.” Since 2020, […]

With 2022 now in the past, the door has closed on one of the most volatile years for the aluminum industry. Supply chain disruptions as a residual fallout from Covid-19 and elevated levels of geopolitical risk raised uncertainty throughout the value chain. The shift in import trends has also been a major topic and is […]

Economic conditions are still iffy at best. Housing data continues to suffer with new home sales plunging and inventory reaching the highest it has been since 2009. The Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indexes both plunged in July as well. The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing skill availability index, which indicates the demand for skilled labor […]

Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group As costs, premiums, and prices all remain high, market participants across all sectors are all looking for the edge of the cliff. The war, Covid 19, and inflation are all part of the daily conversation. Supply disruptions and demand destruction are very real worries for all those involved. In what could […]

Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group The US Midwest premium on aluminum P1020 has seen consistent upward movement since the recovery from the pandemic started. Last week, it touched $0.40 per pound, a level once heavily fought. The fundamentals of the market indicated room for further upward moves, yet it is pausing here. Markets are getting […]