CRU aluminum: N. American market sluggish heading into February

The US Midwest premium was trading between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) on Friday, Feb. 9. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb, which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

The trading side of the market has failed to build any significant momentum. Prior to entering 2024, there was a slight contango building but this has decayed week over week (w/w). End of year had been as high as 24 ¢/lb at one point. The lack of end-use demand is still the biggest concern. Despite rolled shipments steadying to start the year, extrusions are still down heavily. The Federal Reserve has not hinted at any near-term relief from high interest rates, which will only continue to stress consumer spending.