Contributor: Stephen Miller

“The next months are going to be good ones for pig iron producers," according to one source.

After an unusually long period of waiting for the March scrap market settlements, several mills are now actively buying ferrous scrap. And it looks like prices are ticking up.

Domestic shredded scrap has experienced a renaissance in pricing since January. And that increase had caused traditional exporters to ship their material to domestic users instead of overseas. But with recent changes, this cycle may end with the resurgence of export demand and continued foreign exchange fluctuations.

The situation on ferrous scrap has cleared up with the pause of the implementation of Canadian and Mexican blanket tariffs.

We really don’t know yet what and how severe the impact will be. But we do know ferrous scrap will become more expensive in the US. And it will be less expensive for Canadian mills. The larger consequences will be felt on the Canadian front. Even so, in the Southwest, the tariffs on Mexico will lower prices for Mexican scrap and might limit normal flows across the border.

The main impact of tariffs on scrap prices would be felt in Northern states - and especially among those along the Canadian border. Many steelmakers in this area receive a substantial portion of their monthly scrap charge from Canadian processors. Much of it is prime scrap used by hot-rolled (HR) coil producers.

As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.

SMU's Stephen Miller provides an update on the raw materials sector.

An update on the US scrap export market.

There has been considerable upward movement in the US prices paid for future shipment of Brazilian-produced pig iron over the last week. 

The ferrous scrap market in the US and Canada is trying to find its way through difficulties that could well determine its direction over the next several months.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap widened in February ahead of the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs on steel.

A comparison of the current cost of pig iron vs. busheling scrap.

The reprieve for Canadian and Mexican tariffs this week has left some uncertainty for the February scrap market, with some sources pointing towards a $20-per-gross-ton (gt) increase.

The scrap and metallics market has reacted to the tariffs potentially being implemented on our neighbors to the north and south. These could have a serious impact on the market, especially on Canada, unless these products are exempted.

The US scrap market sentiment has become more bullish over the last week. Many districts are telling SMU that the potential rise in prices will exceed the earlier estimate of $20 per gross ton (gt).  Several sources have pegged the February market as up $30-50/gt. Here are several regional viewpoints from the trade: In the […]

Nucor’s raw material segment generated an annual profit of $57 million in 2024. This marked a swing to profit over 2023 when Nucor reported a $14-million loss for the segment. The Charlotte, N.C.-based company did not say in their earnings call on Tuesday what caused this increase besides a 20% increase in the production and […]

There is no doubt pig iron will be needed to fuel the expansion of flat-roll capacity in the US and Canada. Where will it come from? How much will it cost? What will be the quality? Is it a good business to produce merchant pig iron? The US imports between 4-6 million metric tons (mt) per year of […]

The US scrap market for February has a lot of moving parts that need to mesh before an accurate picture can emerge. However, the general opinion for next month is an increase of at least $20 per gross ton (gt), according to sources contacted by SMU. Among the issues are winter weather decreasing scrap flows, […]

The US and Canada have a long history of exporting ferrous scrap to numerous other countries over the last 100 years. During this period, the countries supplied have varied. In the last century, the main export destinations were Japan, South Korea, and the Far East in general. As the installation of EAF melting proliferated, the […]

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap continued to narrow in January, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data. While SMU’s average HRC price edged down week over week (w/w), it rose compared to a month ago. The January price for busheling also increased from December. Our average HRC price as of […]

The export scrap markets continue to lose ground. Unlike the domestic markets in the US and Canada, which have shown some strength in January, there have been multiple sales by US East Coast (USEC) exporters at lower prices, even after the US markets prices settled. And February looks even stronger. There are several reasons for […]

The ferrous scrap market at the start of the new year came into focus late yesterday, with overall prices seen rising from December.

Prices for pig iron imports into the US continue to retreat in the face of regional weakness in demand for ferrous raw materials in South Asia and the Far East.

The ferrous scrap markets start the year off in a battered condition after a real drubbing in 2024. There is optimism, but this was felt at times last year, only to succumb to the reality of weak demand and lower steel production.

The role of dealer resistance has had many ups and down over the last decades. At times dealer resistance to ferrous scrap pricing was justified and had positive effects on prices.

The US domestic ferrous scrap market had a rough 2024, despite optimism as the year started.

The prices being paid by US-based buyers has continued to decline as ferrous raw material demand across the globe remains weak.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap narrowed slightly in December, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

Last week, the export community in the Atlantic Basin was licking its wounds over a Northern European sale at a two-year low of $325 per gross ton (gt) for HMS 80/20 to Turkey.