Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Of the eight indicators of economic health tracked by Steel Market Update, none is flashing red. Taken as a whole, they signal that the U.S. economy is safe from recession for […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Total IP contracted q/q in both Q1 and Q2, but the June report pointed to potential stabilization in manufacturing. YTD through June, total IP is up 2.2 percent y/y, but it is averaging just 1 percent higher than in 2018. Since we expect little expansion during H2, we now […]
Private construction contracted in three months through June, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, is continuing to boom. Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for June was released on Aug. 1. Through June, total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year. This was entirely a result of […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of Key Market Indicators shows the present market situation was basically unchanged in the last month, based on data released in July, but half the 36 indicators trended positive and half negative. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail […]
Home prices continued to rise in May but at a much slower pace, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. The Index showed an annual gain of 3.4 percent in May, down from 3.5 percent in April. The 20-City Composite price growth slipped to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent the […]
Sales of existing homes declined 1.7 percent in June after gaining traction in May. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compared to May, sales declined in the South (-3.4 percent) and West (-3.5 percent) and improved slightly in the Northeast (+1.5 percent) and […]
Housing starts declined slightly in June as single-family starts failed to offset a decline in multi-family construction. Starts in June dropped just under 1 percent from the revised May rate to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,253,000. Single-family housing starts rose 3.5 percent from May to a SAAR of 847,000, while construction of apartment […]
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-May through early July, although manufacturing production was generally flat, reported the Federal Reserve in its July 17 Beige Book. The Fed’s periodic survey of the market found businesses have a generally positive outlook for the coming months, with expectations of continued modest growth despite […]
Steel Market Update is please to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Private construction contracted in the three-month period including March, April and May, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, continued to boom. The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures […]
Home price gains continued to weaken in April, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The National Home Price NSA index gained 3.5 percent year-over-year compared to 3.7 percent the previous month. The 20-City composite was nearly flat with March, down 0.1 percent to post a 2.5 percent gain. Annual growth has slowed in […]
By CRU Analysts Kevin Bai and Ruilin Wang Chinese economic stimulus in 2018 and 2019 will add a total of 21 Mt to Chinese domestic steel demand, most of which is expected to manifest in 2019. Including this, total Chinese domestic steel demand is now expected to grow at around 3 percent this year. Other […]
Housing starts dipped slightly in May, inching down 0.9 percent from April’s revised rate to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,269,000. Starts were 4.7 percent below the May 2018 rate. Single-family starts led the decline, falling 6.4 percent from April to a SAAR of 820,000, while housing of five units or more jumped 13.8 […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
Private construction contracted in three months through April, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, is booming, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Commerce Department data The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for April was released on June 3. Through April, total construction has had negative momentum every month this year […]
The rate of growth in U.S. home prices continues to slow. The March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index gained 3.7 percent year-over-year in March, down from 3.9 percent in February and the lowest annual gain since September 2012. The index has been on a 12-month downward trajectory, falling from a 6.5 percent annual […]
Sales of new homes in April slid 6.9 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to the latest data released by the Department of Commerce. Sales were 7.0 percent higher than the April 2018 estimate of 629,000. The decline in sales followed a robust 723,000 sales pace in March and […]
Although not a disaster, steel demand has fallen short of expectations so far in 2019, contributing to the downtrend in steel prices. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel has declined by double digits since the beginning of the year. Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market over the past week reveals that many service […]
Housing starts jumped 5.7 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235,000, said the Department of Commerce in its latest report. Single-family starts led the way with a 6.2 percent increase, while homes of five units or more increased 2.3 percent. Starts soared by 84.6 percent in the Northeast and 42 percent […]
Private construction contracted in three months through March, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, is booming, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Commerce Department data. The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for March was released on May 1. Through March, total construction has negative momentum. Private construction contracted […]
Home price growth reported in the S&P Core-Logic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index slowed in February, rising just 4.0 percent annually from 4.2 percent in January. The 20-city composite rose just 0.2 percent for the slowest pace of month-over-month growth since September 2012. Year-over-year, the index rose 3.0 percent. The pace of increases for home […]
Housing starts showed continued weakness in March, dipping 0.3 percent from February’s downwardly revised data to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. Housing starts were 14.2 percent below the rate in March 2018. Single-family home starts dipped 0.4 percent from the previous month to the lowest level since September 2016. Starts for multi-dwelling homes […]
Existing home sales fell more than expected in March following a surge in sales in February. March transactions dropped 4.9 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales retreated in all four U.S. regions with the Midwest posting the largest decline. March […]
Sales of new homes rose for the third consecutive month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 units, according to the Commerce Department on Tuesday. Sales were 4.5 percent higher than February’s revised rate and 3.0 percent above the March 2018 estimate. The positive March report was a surprise to economists polled […]
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for 2019, but increased it in each year 2020 through 2024. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. On April 9, the following was published in the IMF blog: “After strong growth in 2017 and early […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The market had hoped that China would unveil a large stimulus package at the March NPC, but any expectation of a large boost to world growth and commodities demand has not come, yet. The current stimulus package is smaller, less potent and less positive for commodities demand than previous […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 116 (April) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and four months from becoming the longest ever. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 118 (June) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and two […]
Construction activity in the U.S. is at an all-time high—but slowing. The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for February was released on April 1. Commerce Department data releases have now recovered from the government shutdown delays. Through February, total construction has negative momentum, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, had strong […]
Major U.S. automakers reported weaker sales in March, in line with analysts’ forecasts. Cox Automotive expects auto sales volume for the month to drop 7 percent year-over-year to 1.547 million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is forecast at 16.5 million vehicles. “The year has started relatively soft for new-vehicle sales,” notes Jonathan Smoke, chief economist […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Data released for Q1 2019 have been largely positive. The ISM Manufacturing survey reflects a moderating rate of expansion, but the reading of 54.2 in February shows a solid level of manufacturing activity with new orders, output, employment and backlogs squarely in “expansion” territory. Housing disappointed in 2018, but […]