Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 24, 2013
Steel Market Update will publish our second Premium Supplement Newsletter on Monday. Included will be our SMU Key Market Indicators and forecast, September imports by product, port and country and articles related to our most recent steel market analysis not available elsewhere.
If you are interested in upgrading one of your memberships to the Premium Level please contact our office at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475 (706-216-5440).
Our next Monthly Newsletter will be published early next week. The Monthly Newsletter packages all of the key events and data from the month of November in an easily digestible format. We do include exclusive articles for just our Monthly members from Peter Wright and me. The newsletter is for those who do not want to read our Executive Newsletter three times per week yet would appreciate our analysis and Keys to Watch for the month of December. This newsletter is intended for the busy executive, smaller companies who cannot yet afford the Executive Newsletter or those just wanting an over-view of the market once per month. It can also be an excellent review for our Executive members who would desire one. The cost is a reasonable $300 per year.
A note for those of you who would like to speak with me this week – I am in California for the next 10 days. I can be reached on my cell phone: 770-596-6268 (California is 3 hours behind east coast time) or by email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
On December 5th and 6th I will be in New York City attending the AIIS dinner and other industry related events. On the 8th of December I will be in Phoenix speaking to the HARDI wholesalers steel committee.
We continue to collect comments regarding our new website. The vast majority of them are finding the site expansive and useful. As an existing member we do need for you to log into the website at least once to adjust your account settings and change your password. If you have misplaced the user name and password we sent to you previously – we can reset it and send you a new one. Just contact our office at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or you are more than welcome to contact our office by phone for assistance: 800-432-3475. Both John Temples and Brett Linton will be in the office to work through any issues you might be having and to introduce you to the website.
Your business is important to us and we do not want to leave anyone behind – please log into the new website.
As always your business is truly appreciate by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Sincerely,
John Packard
Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?