HARDI: Galv market finds mixed conditions, prices steadily rising

Market outlook 

No one who participated in the informal polling portion of the meeting forecasted lower prices on galvanized steel in the next 30 days. Fourteen percent of those polled believe prices will remain flat or could make a conservative shift up or down by $2 per hundredweight (cwt). A bullish 79% of respondents expect galvanized prices to rise more than $2/cwt within the next month. 

Polling data for prices over the next six months demonstrated mixed sentiment among respondents. Some 38% of respondents anticipate price decreases over $2/cwt in the next half-year. Even less optimistic, 15% of respondents expect prices to fall by more than $6/cwt for the same period. In equal measure, 15% of respondents expect prices to hold flat. On the more optimistic side, 23% see prices rising by more than $2/cwt, and 8% said prices will climb by more than $6/cwt. 

Respondent answers showed greater alignment on longer-term pricing forecasts. Over the next 12 months, the majority of respondents (85%) believe prices will fall within the range of $50-59/cwt. The remaining 15% anticipate prices will fall within the range of $60-69/cwt.  

SMU’s galvanized steel spot price assessment on Tuesday found spot prices averaged $1,180 per short ton (st) (~$59/cwt), up $10/st from the prior week and up $120/st since the beginning of the year.  

You can use the SMU interactive pricing tool to find pricing data for steel and scrap. 

Mixed market sentiment  

Overall, sentiment reflected a range of market conditions for participants. Some found greater product availability, normal lead times, and strong demand. Others found their markets cramped by supply constraints and longer lead times.  

One executive at a midwestern metal supply center found the market’s strength had improved compared to his experiences in the previous months.  

“I would say there’s a couple spots we’re struggling to get an item or two, but by and large, we’re able to get the material we need. The extended lead times aren’t really affecting us,” he said.  

Reflecting similar experiences, another metal supplier added context on demand and product availability.  

“In addition to seeing some really nice inquiries coming in, demand, as everyone is mentioning, is very good for us for this time of the year. Availability is not an issue with high-usage products; you’re going to be able to find that. Less commonly used products are a bit harder to track down,” said the second source. 

He said spot prices are much higher than contract prices, but that product can be found within an 8-week period.  

“Lead times are eight weeks, and there’s strength in demand. If you’re not on a contract, you’re definitely paying for that steel,” he said.  

In contrast, two other participants found the market less formidable. One associate agreed that conditions were improving, but said he finds lead times are pushed out while product availability continues to be a challenge. 

“I’d say our demand has been okay. Lead times are definitely out there with mills delaying deliveries. There are definitely shortages in the marketplace. It seems like the market is starting to flirt with imports,” he commented.  

The mixed outlook was confirmed by another HVAC supply associate, who said imports were being canceled due to geopolitical conditions. The caller said import prices are currently comparable to domestic prices.  

“I’m hearing from domestic mill sources that import OEMs are actually booking at higher prices like $1,200/st base because they are more concerned with supply than they are about prices,” said the associate.  

Looking back  

In the equivalent week of 2025, galvanized steel prices averaged $1,110/st. The current price represents a 6% increase from 2025.