Analysis
May 21, 2026
HARDI: HVAC market predicts bullish streak sustains through summer
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Galvanized steel buyers and distributors expect tightening supply and rising price pressure to last into summer.
During this month’s Heating Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council call, participants described a confluence of market factors driving prices and demand upwards. Conditions such as persistent mill delays, elevated transportation costs, and historically low service center inventories continue to shape the galvanized steel market. Upticks in end-market demand continue to be attributed to data center development, heating and cooling applications, and equipment construction. Other demand comes from contractors looking to lock down orders in preparation for stronger pricing or limited availability.
Transportation logistics, and more specifically, trucking availability and the transportation industry’s selectivity, emerged as a theme on the call. Participants stated that transportation logistics have reached a premium.
Market outlook
Everyone who participated in the informal polling portion of the meeting suspected galvanized product prices would continue to climb for the foreseeable future. A majority (54%) expect prices to increase by $4 per hundredweight or higher within the next month. The remaining poll participants (46%) expect prices to be up by ~$2/cwt within the next 30 days.
However, participants were slightly more conservative about where prices will be in six months. More than half of the participants expect prices to remain flat (38%) or fall by two or more dollars (15%). The remaining respondents were split evenly on whether prices would be up by more than $2/cwt (23%) or more than $6/cwt (23%).
In the next twelve months, a majority of participants (54%) expect base prices to range from $60 to $69/cwt. Thirty-one percent said prices will land somewhere within the range $50-59/cwt. A bullish 15% say that the prices will surge to $70-79/cwt.
SMU’s galvanized steel spot price assessment on Tuesday found spot prices averaged $1,240 per short ton, up $10/st from the prior week.
In the equivalent week of 2025, galvanized steel prices averaged $1,145/st. The current price represents a 18.6% increase from the 2025 price.
You can use the SMU interactive pricing tool to find pricing data for steel and scrap.
Market musings
HARDI participants pointed to worsening transportation constraints as an emerging pressure point.
On the call, a participant said it took him 8-10 weeks to secure a truck. Tack that timing onto 8-10 week lead times, then add ~7 days for transport from the mill. Service centers have begun to find inventory gaps resulting from this elongated delivery cycle. Service centers report the lowest stock levels in recent history.
Mounting fuel surcharges have created greater caution among buyers. As prices surge and timing extends, buyers weigh the cost of waiting for fuel prices to decrease in a market with such constrained supply and long lead times. The risk of being empty-handed if one delays buying at premium prices seems high.
A Midwestern service center caller wondered whether the current state of affairs might contribute to sustained pricing strength. He contended that if buyers continue searching for inventory to fulfill customer demand, they’ll be willing to pay higher prices. Callers generally agreed demand remains strong enough to support the “supply-driven recovery.”
Consistent demand intensifies competition among buyers seeking to secure inventory. Recent consolidation on the service center side has challenged smaller buyers. The latter isn’t able to commit to large volume purchases with mills the way their competition can, thus they often find themselves procuring products later than their competition and at higher prices.
