The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the eleventh consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price as recorded by Steel Market Update. A positive MoMo index indicates hot rolled steel prices are increasing, while a negative index indicates a decline in prices.
MoMo should not be confused with the SMU Price Momentum Indicator which is a forward looking indicator and is currently pointing toward higher pricing over the next 30 to 60 days.
MoMo was measured at 6.61 percent this week, meaning that the current HRC price is higher than the average price over the last 12 weeks.
The change in MoMo can be a useful indicator in depicting the severity of price movements and evaluating the directional trend for flat rolled steel prices. The week-over-week change in MoMo was +2.54 percent, following a change of +0.28 percent last week and a change of +0.17 percent two weeks ago. This indicates that the rise in hot rolled prices is accelerating in comparison to last week.
To get a wider sense of the change in the MoMo Index and eliminate weekly fluctuations, we calculate a 3-week average change. The 3-week average change in the MoMo Index is +1.00 percent, following a change of -0.18 percent the week before. This shows that the movement in hot rolled prices is gaining momentum and at a greater pace compared to the previous 3-week period.
The graph below demonstrates the relationship between the SMU hot rolled coil price, the SMU Price MoMo Index, and the three week moving average change in the MoMo Index. As published in our Tuesday evening issue, the SMU HRC price range for this week is $410-$450 per ton with an average price of $430, up $15 per ton from from last week.
Brett LintonRead more from Brett Linton
Latest in SMU Data and Models
SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]
SMU survey: Buyers Sentiment Indices slip
SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices both fell during the week of Dec. 6, based on our most recent survey data.
SMU survey: Mills more willing to talk price on sheet, less on plate
The percentage of steel buyers saying mills were willing to budge on spot pricing has risen for all sheet products SMU surveys, according to our most recent survey data.
SMU survey: Direction of mill lead times mixed on holiday season lull
Movements in lead times were mixed in SMU’s check of the market this week – a reflection of the seasonal dip in ordering that is typically seen during the winter holiday season.
SMU price ranges: Sheet surge continues on limited spot availability
Sheet prices shot higher again this week on the heels of another round of mill price increases as well as on reports of production and supply chain issues at certain domestic producers.