Analysis
August 13, 2026
Apparent steel supply at four-year high in June
Written by Brett Linton
The volume of finished steel entering the US market rose 3% in June from May to the highest monthly level recorded since May 2022, according to SMU’s analysis of recent US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.
Referred to as “apparent steel supply,” this measure is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can also be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand.
June’s supply increased by 252,000 short tons (st) from May, reaching 9.31 million st (Figure 1). This increase was driven primarily by higher domestic shipments, partly offset by lower finished imports and increased exports. June supply was 9% above the average monthly rate of the prior 12 months. May and June 2026 mark the only two months in the past four years in which supply exceeded 9 million st.
Over the past two years, supply has ranged from a high of 8.98 million st in January 2025 to a low of 7.61 million st in November 2025. For comparison, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014, while the lowest was 6.52 million st in 2020.
Supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out monthly noise and better highlight trends. Following January’s 14-month low of 8.00 million st, the 3MMA has recovered each month since, rising to a near-four-year high of 8.93 million st through June (Figure 2).
Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from May to June:
Domestic shipments rose by 395,000 st month over month (m/m) (5%) to 8.54 million st, accounting for 92% of total supply. This was the strongest monthly shipment level recorded in our limited 16-year history.
Following May’s 10-month high, finished steel imports declined by 97,000 st (6%) in June to 1.49 million st. The latest July license data shows a 7% recovery.
Steel exports recovered by 45,000 st (7%) to 710,000 st, a 17-month high.
Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 10% of June’s supply. This rate has been historically low over the past year (it averaged 14% from 2021-24).
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com
