Long Products
July 20, 2026
Apparent steel supply at multi-year high in May
Written by Brett Linton
The volume of finished steel entering the US market increased 8% from April to May to the highest monthly rate recorded in years, according to SMU’s analysis of recent US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.
Referred to as “apparent steel supply,” this measure is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can also be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand.
Supply increased 647,000 short tons (st) from April to May to 9.06 million st (Figure 1), the first time it has been over the 9-million-ton mark since July 2022. This increase was driven primarily by a recovery in domestic shipments, also supported by an uptick in finished imports. May supply was 7% higher than the average supply rate of the prior 12 months.
In the two years leading up to May, we have seen supply rise as high as 8.98 million st (January 2025) and fall as low as 7.61 million st (November 2025). For comparison, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014 and the lowest was 6.52 million st in 2020.
To smooth out monthly noise, supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight trends. Following January’s 14-month low of 8.00 million st, the 3MMA has recovered each month since, rising to a 10-month high of 8.78 million st through May (Figure 2).
Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from April to May.
Domestic shipments rose 477,000 st month over month (m/m) (6%) to 8.14 million st, accounting for 90% of total supply. This volume was just a 63,000 st below the four-year high of 8.20 million st seen two months prior.
Finished steel imports increased 166,000 st (12%) to a 10-month high of 1.59 million st. The latest license data through June shows a 6% reduction.
Previously at a 13-month high, steel exports declined 4,000 st (1%) to 665,000 st.
Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 10% of May’s supply. This rate has been historically low for the last 10 months (it averaged 14% from 2021-2024).
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
