Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 1, 2016
My understanding is most of the mills canceled any scrap not yet delivered by the end of May. They do this when they believe scrap negotiations for June will result in better prices for them. It is still very early in the negotiation process, especially considering that Monday was a holiday. One scrap expert told me this afternoon, “Originally thought -10 on primes, -30 on shred, -20 on cuts. I don’t think it’s that bearish right now though. Primes may end up sideways. With export, cuts probably stay 20. Shred may come back to 20 as well. Shred will certainly hit a floor with drops. Flows aren’t that great.”
So, the door is still open and we will need to watch and wait. If shredded scrap drops and then settles in at that number (or higher) then the negative influence on prices may be muted.
I was asked this evening if our Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing toward higher prices. The simple answer is “yes” but, the more complicated answer is looking at foreign hot rolled offers at $540-$580 per ton and the domestic numbers at $620-$640 per ton (average $630), the spread is $50 to $80 per ton. There may be room for the domestic mills to move another $10 per ton but, I would think without an increase in demand that should be a solid fair number for the domestic mills. So, my gut tells me to leave the indicator pointing toward higher prices on hot rolled but the reality of the market should be for stability at current levels (+/- $20/ton).
I am having a much more difficult time with cold rolled and coated steels. The spread between HRC and CRC/GI/AZ have grown to be a little excessive. At these levels either the end users are going to abandon manufacturing here in the U.S. or foreign product is going to come into the country in growing amounts. Over the short term the mills are controlling supply and in the process prices. This keeps the Momentum Indicator pointing toward higher prices. Logic and past experience tells me that when base prices get into the mid-$40’s and beyond steel buyers look for alternatives. The steel mills should be happy at $40.00/cwt base prices ($800 per ton) which is a healthy $170 per ton spread over HRC base pricing (the mills are asking for CR/coated base prices as high as $44.00/cwt or $880 per ton – you do the math regarding the spread between HR and CR/Coated). I would like to move my indicator to sideways – that seems like it would be the smart move but, that is just my one opinion and you know what they say about opinions…
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John Packard
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Final thoughts
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Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
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Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
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Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
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Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!