Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 10, 2017
The scrap market created a lot of buzz over the past two months that resulted in, so far, two domestic steel mill price increases totaling $60 per ton ($3.00/cwt). I got a note over the weekend from one of the national companies who told me about the scrap markets, “There is a sense the market is overextended at this point, especially on prime grades. I’m not sure we’ll necessarily see a significant pullback in April given ore-based metallics prices and robust demand, but a pause and/or slight pullback would not be surprising.”
The scrap markets ended up as follows:
HMS (heavy melt) = $275-$290 per gross ton
Shredded scrap = $315-$330 per gross ton
Prime grades (busheling) = $390-$415 per gross ton
Pig iron has limited availability at $380-$395 per metric ton, New Orleans (NOLA).
At the FMA Conference in New Orleans last week I asked SMA President, Philip Bell about the high tonnage of cold rolled and coated products still coming into the United States. He responded to my question and part of his answer referenced the amount of money the domestic mills are making on those two products as a reason why he did not believe there would be any more trade cases filed. Philip Bell will be participating in our 7th SMU Steel Summit Conference on August 28-30, 2017.
A note about our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. We are sold out for our April 11-12, 2017 workshop in Toledo, OH and we have a wait list building. The workshop coming up after Toledo will be in Fontana (Los Angeles), California and our tour will be of the California Steel Industries steel mill. We will advise the exact dates as we are working on hotels right now but we are aiming for late June to no later than mid-July 2017. We hope to have all the details on our website by the end of this week. If you have any questions feel free to contact us at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I will have more regarding a couple of the presentations from last week’s FMA/ASD Conference later this week. I am waiting for the Power Point presentations from a couple of the speakers.
I will be in the office all week this week and I can be reached at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?