Steel Products
Economist Alan Beaulieu to Speak at SMU Steel Summit
Written by Brett Linton
July 19, 2017
We’re in for a good year ahead, says popular economist Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics, who will be a keynote speaker during Steel Market Update’s 2017 Steel Summit Aug. 28-30 at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta.
Previewing his remarks, ITR forecasts another six months of accelerating economic expansion for the U.S., followed by six more months of somewhat slower growth. “Use your rates-of-change and leading indicators to determine when your specific business will be impacted, and move forward with confidence knowing what is coming,” he recommends.
New orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, experienced a steeper-than-normal increase from April to May at 3.38 percent. The May 2017 number was 6.9 percent ahead of the May 2016 figure, making it the highest year-over-year growth rate in about five years. “May 2017 was a very good month both on a month-to-month basis and on a year-over-year basis,” Beaulieu says. “The rates-of-change signature for new orders remains positive, and the outlook remains quite encouraging.”
New orders for U.S. aircraft and parts increased 8.42 percent in May, but the year-over-year growth rate for May is 41.4 percent below May 2016. “This is an industry where near-term pessimism is warranted,” Beaulieu says.
Overall, total new orders for manufacturing in the U.S. experienced a strong 6.0 percent year-over-year increase through May. “Expect more good news in U.S. manufacturing through the rest of this year as the demand, as indicated by the new orders trends, stays healthy in most sectors,” Beaulieu says.
Stay positive, and don’t believe everything you read, he adds. “I have read a couple of pieces of economic ‘news’ lately that I found disturbing in that they cast a lot of doubt and uncertainty onto the health of the U.S. economy. My concern is that readers of those publications will lose confidence in their ability to grow and, by their own decisions, fulfill the ‘troubled economy’ prophecy.”
Be sure to attend the SMU Steel Summit Conference 2017 to get more detail on Beaulieu’s forecast for the economy and the steel sector and has he moved the dates of his forecast of a mild recession.
Below is a video of Alan Beaulieu from last year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference where he did an exceptional job of forecasting 2017…
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Steel Products
HR Futures: Market finds footing on supply-side mechanics
As Labor Day marks the transition into fall, the steel market enters September with a similar sense of change. Supply-side fundamentals are beginning to show signs of restraint: imports are limited, outages loom, and production is capped, setting the stage for a market that feels steady on the surface but still unsettled underneath.
Beige Book: US markets remain cautious amidst volatile pricing environment
Sluggish economic activity across the US was largely attributed to uncertainty caused by tariff policies and growing cost pressures, according to the US Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) latest Beige Book report. The Fed’s latest economic report, posted on Sept. 3, consists of economic findings from the six weeks preceding Aug. 25 throughout 12 districts. Economic […]
Rig count dips again in both US and Canada
Oil and gas drilling activity waned in the US and Canada this past week. Ticking own for the second straight week in both regions.
Steel caucus pushes US trade officials to maintain strong S232 program
The bipartisan Congressional Steel Caucus is pushing for US officials to maintain a robust Section 232 program as they negotiate trade deals with America's trading partners.
Active rig count declines in US, Canada
Oil and gas drilling activity slowed in the US and Canada this past week. An unfamiliar trend after both regions saw repeated gains of late.